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DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of DeFi Development Corp. $2.30, price $5.79, upside -60.4%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US47100L3015

DD DeFi Development Corp. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

DeFi Development Corp.

DFDV · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.30 · Strongly overvalued (−60%)
!Quality 18/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.8 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$42.50 $0.4926 Fair Value $2.30 Jul 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

38‑month range $0.4926 – $42.50 · fair‑value band $1.72 – $2.87 · the $5.79 price screens above the $2.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

DeFi Development Corp. focuses on building its treasury around Solana (SOL). SOL is a blockchain infrastructure platform. The company operates through two segments: Digital Asset Treasury and Real Estate Platform.

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DeFi Development Corp. focuses on building its treasury around Solana (SOL). SOL is a blockchain infrastructure platform. The company operates through two segments: Digital Asset Treasury and Real Estate Platform. The Digital Asset Treasury segment executes and manages its treasury policy for the purpose of purchasing, holding, and compounding its digital asset holdings through staking and operating its owned validators. The Real Estate Platform segment offers a technology platform that connects commercial mortgage and small business borrowers looking for debt to refinance, build, or buy commercial property, including apartment buildings and commercial property lenders. The company was formerly known as Janover Inc. and changed its name to DeFi Development Corp. in April 2025. The company. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

Stock analysis

DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) currently trades at $5.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.30, implying the stock looks roughly 152.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.72 (bear) to $2.87 (bull), the price of $5.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

DeFi Development Corp. reported revenue of $11.4M in FY2025 versus $2.0M in FY2021, a compound +54.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$73.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $107M · P/S ratio 6.59 · EPS (TTM) $−7.10 · Return on equity −2,398% · Return on assets (EBIT) −61.5% · Operating margin −2,073% · Revenue (TTM) $13.8M · Revenue growth (YoY) +828%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 134% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −60%, DFDV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.72 Fair Value $2.30 Bull $2.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple $2.10 $2.80 $3.50 55
NCAV (Graham) $1.65 $2.21 $3.30 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $2.10 $2.80 $3.50 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.65 $2.21 $3.30 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+442.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.2% (2020) → −67.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DFDV screens 152% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 656 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −47% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 828% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 7.76× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 56
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 81

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $117.21 $52.29 −55%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $97.21 $29.25 −70%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.36 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $179.95 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $502.79 $579.51 +15%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $158.23 $312.27 +97%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.57 $209.14 +100%

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DeFi Development Corp. · Fair Value
$2.30 −152%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DeFi Development Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DFDV

Frequently asked questions

Is DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.30 versus a price of $5.79, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DFDV?
Our model-based fair value for DeFi Development Corp. is $2.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.79.
What is the quality score of DFDV?
DeFi Development Corp. has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.72, optimistic scenario $2.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DeFi Development Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.30, about −60% upside versus a price of $5.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.72, optimistic scenario $2.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
DeFi Development Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DeFi Development Corp. it is $2.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.79. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DeFi Development Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DFDV trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.79, fair value $2.30, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DFDV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.30). For DeFi Development Corp. the two are $3.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DeFi Development Corp. worth?
The market values DeFi Development Corp. at about $107M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.79; our models calculate a fair value of $2.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DFDV?
Our models span a range for DeFi Development Corp.: cautious scenario $1.72, base $2.30, optimistic $2.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is DFDV from its 52-week high?
DeFi Development Corp. trades at $5.79, about 68% below its 52-week high of $17.91 and 134% above the low of $2.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DeFi Development Corp.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DeFi Development Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.79, calculated fair value $2.30 (−60%), Quality Score 18/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DFDV calculated?
We run DeFi Development Corp. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. DeFi Development Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.79. Our model-based fair value is $2.30, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DeFi Development Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of DeFi Development Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
The market capitalisation of DeFi Development Corp. is $107M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DeFi Development Corp. is 6.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
Earnings per share at DeFi Development Corp. are $−7.10. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DeFi Development Corp. is −2,398% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DeFi Development Corp. is −61.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
The operating margin of DeFi Development Corp. is −2,073% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV)?
Revenue at DeFi Development Corp. is growing +828% versus a year earlier (3y avg +74.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) generate?
The free cash flow of DeFi Development Corp. is −$18.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) carry?
The net debt of DeFi Development Corp. is $122M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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