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Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 3, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc stock $5.06, price $21.55, that is 76.5% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare US · Home Canada · ISIN CA10919W4056

BM Bright Minds Biosciences Inc logo Thin data Oct 31, 2026

Bright Minds Biosciences Inc

DRUG · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 77% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 43/100
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Fair value $5.06 · Strongly overvalued (−76.5%)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$95.99 $0.9600 Fair Value $5.06 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9600 – $95.99 · fair‑value band $3.34 – $6.32 · the $21.55 price screens above the $5.06 fair value. As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Company profile

Bright Minds Biosciences Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics to improve the lives of patients with severe and life-altering diseases in the United States.

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Its portfolio includes 5-HT2 Receptors, which are serotonin agonists for epilepsy and neuropsychiatric disorders; and BMB-101, which has completed phase 1 trial for undisclosed seizure disorder and is in phase 2 clinical trials for the developmental and epileptic encephalopathies and absence epilepsies.

The company also develops BMB-201 and BMB-202 for the treatment of neuropsychiatric and neurology indications; and BMB-105, a 5-HT2C agonist to treat Prader Willi Syndrome.

Bright Minds Biosciences Inc. has a collaboration with Firefly Neuroscience, Inc. to provide an analysis of the electroencephalogram (EEG) data in the Company's BREAKTHROUGH study. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) currently trades at $21.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.06, 76.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $3.34 (bear) to $6.32 (bull), the price of $21.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Bright Minds Biosciences Inc reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$12.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $559M Small · EPS (TTM) $−2.05 · Return on equity −13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −67.5% · Free cash flow −$8.7M · Net cash $82.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −77%, DRUG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.34 Fair Value $5.06 Bull $6.32
Price $21.55 · Downside -76.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $3.92 $5.94 $7.42 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.92 $5.94 $7.42 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 57
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DRUG screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (56 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Bright Minds Biosciences Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 565 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −76.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −14.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.82× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $973.36 $1,275 +31% vs DRUG
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$43.06 HK$49.57 +15% vs DRUG
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $530.76 $608.47 +15% vs DRUG
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,719 kr 4,068 +9% vs DRUG
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,452,000 KRW 1,564,200 KRW +8% vs DRUG
argenx SE ARGX $901.12 $908.40 +1% vs DRUG
CSL Limited CSL A$197.34 A$178.62 −9% vs DRUG
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$210.20 HK$153.56 −27% vs DRUG
Celltrion, Inc 068270 189,900 KRW 74,945 KRW −61% vs DRUG
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $66.40 $19.01 −71% vs DRUG

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Bright Minds Biosciences Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bright Minds Biosciences Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRUG

Frequently asked questions

Is Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.06 versus a price of $21.55, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRUG?
Our model-based fair value for Bright Minds Biosciences Inc is $5.06 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.55.
What is the quality score of DRUG?
Bright Minds Biosciences Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.06 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.34, optimistic scenario $6.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bright Minds Biosciences Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.06, about 77% lower versus a price of $21.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.34, optimistic scenario $6.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bright Minds Biosciences Inc it is $5.06 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of $21.55. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bright Minds Biosciences Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, DRUG trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.55, fair value $5.06, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRUG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.06). For Bright Minds Biosciences Inc the two are $16.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bright Minds Biosciences Inc worth?
The market values Bright Minds Biosciences Inc at about $559M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is $21.55; our models calculate a fair value of $5.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRUG?
Our models span a range for Bright Minds Biosciences Inc: cautious scenario $3.34, base $5.06, optimistic $6.32 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price $21.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −13.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRUG from its 52-week high?
Bright Minds Biosciences Inc trades at $21.55, about 78% below its 52-week high of $95.99 and at the low of $21.55 (as of Nov 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bright Minds Biosciences Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bright Minds Biosciences Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price $21.55, calculated fair value $5.06 (−77%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRUG calculated?
We run Bright Minds Biosciences Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bright Minds Biosciences Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
The closing price on Nov 3, 2026 was $21.55. Our model-based fair value is $5.06, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bright Minds Biosciences Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.34 to $6.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
The market capitalisation of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc is $559M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
Earnings per share at Bright Minds Biosciences Inc are $−2.05. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc is −13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc is −67.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) generate?
The free cash flow of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc is −$8.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) hold?
Bright Minds Biosciences Inc holds more cash than debt, $82.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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