Discovery Limited (DSBP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Discovery Limited ZAR 95.17, price ZAR 125, upside -23.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R66.66 – R141.05 · fair‑value band R85.54 – R114.61 · the R124.97 price screens above the R95.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Discovery Limited provides various insurance products and services primarily in South Africa and the United Kingdom. It operates through SA Health, SA Life, SA Invest, SA Insure, SA Bank, UK Health, UK Life, and All Other segments.
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Discovery Limited provides various insurance products and services primarily in South Africa and the United Kingdom. It operates through SA Health, SA Life, SA Invest, SA Insure, SA Bank, UK Health, UK Life, and All Other segments. The company offers health, life, car, travel, business, and home insurance products; motor, building, household content, and portable possessions insurance products; private medical insurance products; and commercial short-term risk insurance products. It also provides pension and provident fund solutions; managed care services; financial solutions; investment products; retail banking solutions, including deposits and loans and advances; and Vitality, which offers health and lifestyle benefits. The company was formerly known as Discovery Holdings Limited and changed its name to Discovery Limited in December 2012. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Discovery Limited (DSBP) currently trades at R124.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R95.17, 23.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R142.60 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the R124.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R27.74, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R85.54 (bear) to R114.61 (bull), the price of R124.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Discovery Limited reported revenue of 81.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 75.2B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.6B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B ZAC · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) R6.90 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −24%, DSBP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R85.54Fair Value R95.17Bull R114.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.78 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 16%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Discovery Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DSBP
Frequently asked questions
Is Discovery Limited (DSBP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R95.17 versus a price of R124.97, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DSBP?
Our model-based fair value for Discovery Limited is R95.17 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R124.97.
What is the quality score of DSBP?
Discovery Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R95.17 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R85.54, optimistic scenario R114.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Discovery Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R95.17, about −24% upside versus a price of R124.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R85.54, optimistic scenario R114.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Discovery Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 91.1B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Discovery Limited pay a dividend?
Discovery Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Discovery Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DSBP use?
Our models discount Discovery Limited at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Discovery Limited that is +9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Discovery Limited (DSBP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Discovery Limited grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Discovery Limited (DSBP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Discovery Limited (+9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.03 %: that much free cash flow Discovery Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Discovery Limited it is R95.17 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R124.97. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Discovery Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, DSBP trades above its calculated fair value: price R124.97, fair value R95.17, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DSBP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R124.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R95.17). For Discovery Limited the two are R29.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Discovery Limited worth?
The market values Discovery Limited at about 1.3B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R124.97; our models calculate a fair value of R95.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DSBP?
Our models span a range for Discovery Limited: cautious scenario R85.54, base R95.17, optimistic R114.61 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R124.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DSBP?
Discovery Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R95.17 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Discovery Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DSBP from its 52-week high?
Discovery Limited trades at R124.97, about 11% below its 52-week high of R141.05 and 7% above the low of R116.41 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R95.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Discovery Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Discovery Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R124.97, calculated fair value R95.17 (−24%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DSBP calculated?
We run Discovery Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R95.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Discovery Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R124.97. Our model-based fair value is R95.17, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Discovery Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R114.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Discovery Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The market capitalisation of Discovery Limited is 1.3B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Discovery Limited is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Earnings per share at Discovery Limited are R6.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The dividend yield of Discovery Limited is 2.5% (payout 45.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The net margin of Discovery Limited is 11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Discovery Limited is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Discovery Limited is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
The operating margin of Discovery Limited is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Revenue at Discovery Limited is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Discovery Limited (DSBP)?
Earnings per share at Discovery Limited are growing +28.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Discovery Limited (DSBP) carry?
The net debt of Discovery Limited is 1.6B ZAR (fiscal year 2019, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026