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Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A (ERFO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · IT · Market cap €9.4M

LF Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A ERFO · MI
Price€1.12
Fair Value€0.9400
Upside-15.7%
Quality66/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 7.6% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Narrow moat 39/100
Evidence: Medium Range €0.7100 – €1.18 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from €1.31 to €0.9400 (−28.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • Our model range runs from €0.7100 (bear) to €1.18 (bull), base €0.9400. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

€3.04 €0.8541 Fair Value €0.9400 Jul 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

49‑month range €0.8541 – €3.04 · fair‑value band €0.7100 – €1.18 · the €1.12 price screens above the €0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A (ERFO) currently trades at €1.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A generated revenue of €9.7M at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 64.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 27.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €0.7100 (bear case) to €1.18 (bull case); at €1.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -16%, ERFO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €0.6500 €0.6400 €0.5500 76
ROIC Compounder €0.7700 €0.8600 €0.9300 72
Gordon GGM €0.4500 €0.7600 €0.9800 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.3000 €2.12 €2.98 54
Lynch FV €0.6900 €0.9900 €1.28 50
PEG = 1.0 €0.6900 €0.9900 €1.28 46
EPV €0.7700 €0.8600 €0.9300 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.4500 €0.7600 €0.9800 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.4500 €0.7200 €0.8200 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.7100 €0.9400 €1.18 63
P/S Multiple €0.5700 €0.7600 €0.9500 58
P/B Multiple €0.5700 €0.7600 €0.9500 55
EV/EBIT €1.72 €2.29 €2.87 53
EV/EBITDA €2.36 €3.15 €3.93 54
EV/Revenue €1.20 €1.71 €2.22 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.4700 €0.6300 €0.9300 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €0.6500 €0.6400 €0.5500 76
ROIC Compounder €0.7700 €0.8600 €0.9300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €0.9200 €1.31 €1.71 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€1.31) versus Asset-Based (€0.6300). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €9.7M
Revenue growth (YoY) +64.7%
Net margin 7.6%
Return on equity 9.3%
Free cash flow −€1.6M FY2025
P/E ratio 27.5
More key figures
Operating margin 6.9%
EPS (TTM) €0.0400
EPS growth (YoY) +570%
Net debt €295K FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 86
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A. engages in the developing and production of food supplements in Italy. It provides therapeutic solutions for andrology, gastroenterology, gynecology, neurology, dentistry, orthopedics, and vascular therapeutic areas. Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A. was founded in 2013 and is based in Villafranca Tirrena, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A reported revenue of €9.7M in FY2025 versus €4.8M in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €382K in FY2025, compounding −24.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€9.7M
Latest YoY
+65.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.9%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Revenue +19.0%/yr
FY21 €4.8M
FY22 €4.6M
FY23 €5.7M
FY24 €5.8M
FY25 €9.7M
Net income −24.4%/yr
FY21 €1.2M
FY22 €716K
FY23 €554K
FY24 €367K
FY25 €382K

ERFO screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERFO

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −16% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 65% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.36× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 12 · sector 28
FUTURE 100 · sector 20
PAST 37 · sector 27
HEALTH 94 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%
Nongshim Co 004370 348,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A (ERFO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.9400 versus a price of €1.12, about −16% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERFO?
Our model-based fair value for Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A is €0.9400 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €1.12.
What is the quality score of ERFO?
Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A (ERFO)?
Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.7M (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ERFO?
The net profit margin of Laboratorio Farmaceutico Erfo S.p.A is about 7.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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