Eramet SA (ERMAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Eramet SA $1.47, price $4.84, upside -69.6%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.54 – $16.35 · fair‑value band $1.10 – $2.19 · the $4.84 price screens above the $1.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ERAMET S.A. produces and sells manganese and nickel metals in Asia, Europe, North America, and internationally. It extracts and processes manganese and nickel ores; extracts and develops mineral sands; and mines and processes lithium deposits.
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ERAMET S.A. produces and sells manganese and nickel metals in Asia, Europe, North America, and internationally. It extracts and processes manganese and nickel ores; extracts and develops mineral sands; and mines and processes lithium deposits. The company also offers manganese alloys, including silicomanganese, low-carbon silicomanganese, and manganese dioxide, as well as medium, low, and high carbon ferromanganese; manganese ores, such as lumpy ores, fines, HM, and sinter products; ferronickel, nickel pig iron, briquettes, nickel salts, nickel ferroalloys, ferronickel slag, and other nickel products; and mineral sands, ilmenite, rutile, and leucoxene, such as zircon and titanium dioxide used in building, decoration, and ceramics, and abrasives. In addition, it operates Moanda mine in Gabon; nickel mines in New Caledonia and Indonesia; and mineral sand mine in Senegal. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Eramet SA ADR (ERMAY) currently trades at $4.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.47, 69.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.10 (bear) to $2.19 (bull), the price of $4.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Eramet SA ADR reported revenue of €2.8B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€458M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $−1.93 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin −16.6% · Return on equity −31.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin −7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −70%, ERMAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.10Fair Value $1.47Bull $2.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.4/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.9% (2020) → −4.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 433 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+9.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−2.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−17.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Eramet SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ERMAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Eramet SA (ERMAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.47 versus a price of $4.84, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ERMAY?
Our model-based fair value for Eramet SA ADR is $1.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.84.
What is the quality score of ERMAY?
Eramet SA ADR has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.47 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $2.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eramet SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.47, about −70% upside versus a price of $4.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $2.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Eramet SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Eramet SA ADR pay a dividend?
Eramet SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eramet SA ADR it is $1.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.84. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eramet SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ERMAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.84, fair value $1.47, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ERMAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.47). For Eramet SA ADR the two are $3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eramet SA ADR worth?
The market values Eramet SA ADR at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.84; our models calculate a fair value of $1.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ERMAY?
Our models span a range for Eramet SA ADR: cautious scenario $1.10, base $1.47, optimistic $2.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eramet SA ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −31.4%, debt of 2.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ERMAY from its 52-week high?
Eramet SA ADR trades at $4.84, about 53% below its 52-week high of $10.27 and 3% above the low of $4.71 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eramet SA ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eramet SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.84, calculated fair value $1.47 (−70%), Quality Score 25/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ERMAY calculated?
We run Eramet SA ADR through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Eramet SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.84. Our model-based fair value is $1.47, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eramet SA ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.10 to $2.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Eramet SA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The market capitalisation of Eramet SA ADR is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eramet SA ADR is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Earnings per share at Eramet SA ADR are $−1.93. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The dividend yield of Eramet SA ADR is 2.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The net margin of Eramet SA ADR is −16.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eramet SA ADR is −31.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eramet SA ADR is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
The operating margin of Eramet SA ADR is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Revenue at Eramet SA ADR is growing −8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eramet SA (ERMAY)?
Earnings per share at Eramet SA ADR are growing +425% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Eramet SA (ERMAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Eramet SA ADR is −€714M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Eramet SA (ERMAY) carry?
The net debt of Eramet SA ADR is €2.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026