Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Es Bancshares Md $6.19, price $7.25, upside -14.6%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.50 – $7.51 · fair‑value band $4.64 – $7.74 · the $7.25 price screens above the $6.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ES Bancshares, Inc., through its subsidiary, Empire State Bank, provides various financial services in New York. The company provides personal and business checking, money market, and savings accounts; certificate of deposit accounts; and individual retirement accounts.
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ES Bancshares, Inc., through its subsidiary, Empire State Bank, provides various financial services in New York. The company provides personal and business checking, money market, and savings accounts; certificate of deposit accounts; and individual retirement accounts. It offers SBA loans, commercial term and commercial real estate loans, and secured lines and commercial letters of credit; SBA and commercial real estate financing, as well as 2-3-4 family investment property; and residential mortgages. In addition, the company provides various services, including cash and escrow management, night depository, remote deposit, debit card, QuickBooks/Quicken, and wire services; remote deposit; insurance programs; and checks, direct deposits, automatic loan payments, automatic transfer, and combined statements services. Further, it provides digital wallet, and online and mobile banking services. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Staten Island, New York.
Stock analysis
Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) currently trades at $7.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.19, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $5.74 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $7.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.92, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.64 (bear) to $7.74 (bull), the price of $7.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Es Bancshares Md reported revenue of $18.8M in FY2025 versus $19.1M in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9M in FY2025, compounding −11.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $50.2M · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 15.3% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 22.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −15%, ESBS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.64Fair Value $6.19Bull $7.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3584 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 17%
2025 sits 89% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.1%/yr over ~6Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.75× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.19 versus a price of $7.25, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESBS?
Our model-based fair value for Es Bancshares Md is $6.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.25.
What is the quality score of ESBS?
Es Bancshares Md has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.64, optimistic scenario $7.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Es Bancshares Md stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.19, about −15% upside versus a price of $7.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.64, optimistic scenario $7.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Es Bancshares Md reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Es Bancshares Md would have to grow free cash flow by +2.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESBS use?
Our models discount Es Bancshares Md at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Es Bancshares Md that is +2.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Es Bancshares Md grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +2.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Es Bancshares Md (+2.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.89 %: that much free cash flow Es Bancshares Md produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Es Bancshares Md it is $6.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.25. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Es Bancshares Md stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ESBS trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.25, fair value $6.19, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESBS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.19). For Es Bancshares Md the two are $1.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Es Bancshares Md worth?
The market values Es Bancshares Md at about $50.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.25; our models calculate a fair value of $6.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESBS?
Our models span a range for Es Bancshares Md: cautious scenario $4.64, base $6.19, optimistic $7.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESBS?
Es Bancshares Md trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Es Bancshares Md (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESBS from its 52-week high?
Es Bancshares Md trades at $7.25, about 3% below its 52-week high of $7.51 and 25% above the low of $5.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Es Bancshares Md?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Es Bancshares Md stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.25, calculated fair value $6.19 (−15%), Quality Score 60/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESBS calculated?
We run Es Bancshares Md through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Es Bancshares Md itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.25. Our model-based fair value is $6.19, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Es Bancshares Md right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Es Bancshares Md
How large is the market capitalisation of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The market capitalisation of Es Bancshares Md is $50.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Es Bancshares Md is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Earnings per share at Es Bancshares Md are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The net margin of Es Bancshares Md is 15.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Es Bancshares Md is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Es Bancshares Md is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
The operating margin of Es Bancshares Md is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Revenue at Es Bancshares Md is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Es Bancshares Md (ESBS)?
Earnings per share at Es Bancshares Md are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Es Bancshares Md (ESBS) carry?
The net debt of Es Bancshares Md is $14.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026