Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp $48.35, price $63.25, upside -23.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.36 – $71.92 · fair‑value band $34.65 – $62.86 · the $63.25 price screens above the $48.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. manufactures and sells electronic equipment primarily for military and industrial applications in the United States and internationally.
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Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. manufactures and sells electronic equipment primarily for military and industrial applications in the United States and internationally. Its principal products include power supplies, power converters, filters, power transformers, magnetic components, power distribution equipment, UPS systems, and antennas for use in AC and DC locomotives, shipboard power and radar, airborne power, ground-based radar, and ground mobile power applications. The company also provides various services, such as design and development to specification, build to print, design services, design studies, environmental testing services, metal fabrication, and painting services, as well as automatic testing equipment development services. In addition, it produces individual components, which include inductors, as well as paints, wires, qualifies, and test items; populates printed circuit boards; and fabricates metalwork. The company serves industrial manufacturers and defense companies, the government of the United States, foreign governments, and foreign electronic equipment companies through its direct sales organization and outside sales representatives. Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. was incorporated in 1928 and is based in Saratoga Springs, New York.
Stock analysis
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) currently trades at $63.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.35, implying the stock looks roughly 30.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $52.85 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $63.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.37, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $34.65 (bear) to $62.86 (bull), the price of $63.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp reported revenue of $44.0M in FY2025 versus $27.7M in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $8.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $183M · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 3.12 · EPS (TTM) $3.81 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 18.5% · Return on equity 21.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −24%, ESP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $34.65Fair Value $48.35Bull $62.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+49.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 19%
2025 sits 103% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 553 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Is Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.35 versus a price of $63.25, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESP?
Our model-based fair value for Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is $48.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $63.25.
What is the quality score of ESP?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.65, optimistic scenario $62.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.35, about −24% upside versus a price of $63.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.65, optimistic scenario $62.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $42.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp pay a dividend?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESP use?
Our models discount Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp that is -3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (-3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.11 %: that much free cash flow Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp it is $48.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $63.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ESP trades above its calculated fair value: price $63.25, fair value $48.35, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($63.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.35). For Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp the two are $14.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp worth?
The market values Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp at about $183M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $63.25; our models calculate a fair value of $48.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESP?
Our models span a range for Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp: cautious scenario $34.65, base $48.35, optimistic $62.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $63.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESP?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESP from its 52-week high?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp trades at $63.25, about 12% below its 52-week high of $71.92 and 76% above the low of $35.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Vertiv Holdings, Prysmian S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $63.25, calculated fair value $48.35 (−24%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESP calculated?
We run Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $63.25. Our model-based fair value is $48.35, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($34.65 to $62.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) come from?
Earnings per share at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The market capitalisation of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is $183M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 3.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Earnings per share at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp are $3.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The dividend yield of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 2.8% (payout 45.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The net margin of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 18.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
The operating margin of Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Revenue at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp is growing +10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP)?
Earnings per share at Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp are growing +57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp (ESP) hold?
Espey Mfg & Electronics Corp holds more cash than debt, $18.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026