Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $4.28, price $49.30, upside -91.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.02 – $64.43 · fair‑value band $2.95 – $6.15 · the $49.30 price screens above the $4.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for rare diseases.
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Its commercial rare disease products include Increlex for the treatment of severe primary igf-1 deficiency; Alkindi Sprinkle for adrenal insufficiency; Khindivi for adrenocortical insufficiency; Galzin for Wilson disease; PKU Golike for phenylketonuria; Carglumic Acid for N-acetylglutamate synthase deficiency; Betaine Anhydrous for homocystinuria; and Nitisinone for tyrosinemia type 1. The company is also developing various product candidates, which are in late-stage development, including ET-600 for diabetes insipidus; Amglidia for neonatal diabetes mellitus; ET-700 for Wilson disease; ET-800 for adrenal insufficiency; and ZENEO hydrocortisone autoinjector for adrenal crisis.
Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Deer Park, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) currently trades at $49.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.28, 91.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.03 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $49.30 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.84, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.95 (bear) to $6.15 (bull), the price of $49.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $80.0M in FY2025 versus $21.8M in FY2021, a compound +38.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 126.4 · P/S ratio 15.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 36.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.1% · Operating margin 35.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 244% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −91%, ETON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1600 to $9.92). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$2.95Fair Value $4.28Bull$6.15
Price $49.30 · Upside -91.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3152 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$6.17$8.95$17.2775
EPV$0.1600$0.1600$0.160074
Growth DCF$5.79$9.92$16.4274
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$6.17$8.95$17.2775
5Y Revenue Exit$2.09$2.44$3.1072
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.12$4.52$7.2472
10Y Revenue Exit$3.47$5.03$5.3066
10Y EBITDA Exit$4.16$7.06$11.4864
Earnings-Based
EPV$0.1600$0.1600$0.160074
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$1.33$1.84$2.3467
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$5.79$9.92$16.4274
Rev-Margin DCF$2.23$2.79$4.0571
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$0.1600$0.1600$0.160070
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+104.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.5%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.0%
’19
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−69,515.4% (2020) → 0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+48.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.8% a year for the price and +45.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−91.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)35.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)98.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)126.4× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)15.58× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow161.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA65.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.28 versus a price of $49.30, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ETON?
Our model-based fair value for Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is $4.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.30.
What is the quality score of ETON?
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.28 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.95, optimistic scenario $6.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.28, about −91% upside versus a price of $49.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.95, optimistic scenario $6.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $106M (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +55.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +359.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ETON use?
Our models discount Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +55.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +359.6 % a year. The price currently implies +55.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (+55.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.63 %: that much free cash flow Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $4.28 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $49.30. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, ETON trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.30, fair value $4.28, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ETON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.28). For Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $45.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $49.30; our models calculate a fair value of $4.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ETON?
Our models span a range for Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $2.95, base $4.28, optimistic $6.15 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $49.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ETON?
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 126.4 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 15.6, EV/EBITDA 65.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 36.0%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ETON from its 52-week high?
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $49.30, about 23% below its 52-week high of $64.43 and 244% above the low of $14.35 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $49.30, calculated fair value $4.28 (−91%), Quality Score 45/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ETON calculated?
We run Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $49.30. Our model-based fair value is $4.28, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.95 to $6.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The market capitalisation of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is 15.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Earnings per share at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 126.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The net margin of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is 12.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is 36.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is −9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
The operating margin of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is 35.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Revenue at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +98.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON)?
Earnings per share at Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing −12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (ETON) carry?
The net debt of Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is $5.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 22, 2026