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Exosens, (EXENS) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FR · Market cap €2.8B

E Exosens, EXENS · PA
Price€63.25
Fair Value€17.69
Upside-72.0%
Quality47/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 9.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.54% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Moderate moat 62/100
Evidence: High Range €12.01 – €22.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €17.61 to €17.69 (+0.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +6.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 72% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€22.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (€12.01 to €22.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

€72.57 €16.97 Fair Value €17.69 Jun 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range €16.97 – €72.57 · fair‑value band €12.01 – €22.11 · the €63.25 price screens above the €17.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Exosens, (EXENS) currently trades at €63.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.69, implying the stock looks roughly 72.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Exosens, generated revenue of €468M at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 20.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at €211M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €12.01 (bear case) to €22.11 (bull case); at €63.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -72%, EXENS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €10.73 €22.13 €44.43 80
Residual Income €7.49 €8.23 €12.04 76
Rev-Margin DCF €10.02 €23.57 €48.98 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €11.65 €19.86 €45.47 38
Owner Earnings €5.96 €17.53 €40.94 31
5Y Revenue Exit €9.99 €20.17 €41.49 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €20.97 €42.35 €84.38 41
5Y P/E Exit €10.58 €27.54 €50.57 38
10Y Revenue Exit €10.19 €27.15 €38.10 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €18.52 €50.23 €107.00 37
10Y P/E Exit €11.12 €28.38 €56.56 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €5.73 €39.94 €56.05 54
Lynch FV €14.85 €21.22 €27.58 50
PEG = 1.0 €14.85 €21.22 €27.58 46
EPV €11.54 €13.92 €15.98 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.8800 €1.76 €2.67 70
DDM Multi-Stage €0.8800 €1.52 €1.86 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €13.27 €17.69 €22.11 63
P/S Multiple €10.74 €14.32 €17.90 58
P/B Multiple €10.74 €14.32 €17.90 55
EV/EBIT €22.14 €30.71 €39.28 53
EV/EBITDA €23.77 €32.88 €41.99 54
EV/Revenue €8.07 €13.06 €18.05 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.40 €5.89 €8.79 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €10.73 €22.13 €44.43 80
Rev-Margin DCF €10.02 €23.57 €48.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €7.49 €8.23 €12.04 76
ROIC Compounder €14.17 €21.23 €26.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €19.03 €27.19 €35.35 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€27.19) versus Dividend Discount (€1.52). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €468M
Revenue growth (YoY) +20.1%
Net margin 9.1%
Return on equity 16.4%
Free cash flow €48.5M FY2025
P/E ratio 83.5
More key figures
Operating margin 22.2%
EPS (TTM) €0.6700
Dividend yield 0.5%
Net debt €211M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 20
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 39
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Exosens, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells electro-optical technologies in France, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Amplification and Detection and Imaging.

Full company description

Exosens, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells electro-optical technologies in France, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Amplification and Detection and Imaging. The company offers image intensifier tubes; cameras, sensors, modules and cores, and imaging systems and solutions, including UV missile warning solution, atmospheric sounder, and spectroradiometer; and detection and imaging products for ions and electrons, photons, and neutrons, as well as micro pore optics and components, such as phosphor screens, resistive glass products, microchannel plates, and electron generator arrays. It also provides bare and energy compensated Geiger- Müller tubes; gamma and neutron detectors; mineral insulated extensions; and silicon photodiodes, as well as methane airborne detection solutions. The company sells its products under the Exosens, Photonis, Xenics, Telops, El-Mul, and Noxant brand names. It serves defense and surveillance, life sciences and environment, industrial control, and nuclear markets. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mérignac, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Exosens, reported revenue of €468M in FY2025 versus €166M in FY2021, a compound +29.6%/yr. Reported net income was €42.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€468M
Latest YoY
+18.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+32.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+25.6%
Revenue +29.6%/yr
FY21 €166M
FY22 €201M
FY23 €319M
FY24 €394M
FY25 €468M
Net income
FY21 −€149M
FY22 €11.2M
FY23 €17.1M
FY24 €30.7M
FY25 €42.7M

EXENS screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exosens, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXENS

Peer Group

Electrical Equipment & Parts · 528 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 20% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.56× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 83.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 7.36× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 67.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 26.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 57
PAST 65 · sector 26
HEALTH 72 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 11 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

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WEG S.A WEGE3 13,210 ARS 7,948 ARS -40%
Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 ¥114.79 ¥123.83 +8%
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HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 823,000 KRW 371,133 KRW -55%
LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 190,000 KRW 31,517 KRW -83%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Exosens, (EXENS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.69 versus a price of €63.25, about −72% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXENS?
Our model-based fair value for Exosens, is €17.69 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €63.25.
What is the quality score of EXENS?
Exosens, has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Exosens, (EXENS)?
Exosens, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €468M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EXENS?
The net profit margin of Exosens, is about 9.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Exosens, pay a dividend?
Exosens, currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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