First Financial Bankshares, Inc (FFIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $5.2B
First Financial Bankshares, Inc
FFIN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.73 – $49.34 · fair‑value band $17.26 – $28.76 · the $34.67 price screens above the $23.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
First Financial Bankshares, Inc (FFIN) currently trades at $34.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.01, implying the stock looks roughly 33.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Financial Bankshares, Inc generated revenue of $622M at a net margin of 42.4%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.26 (bear case) to $28.76 (bull case); at $34.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -34%, FFIN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($18.73) versus Asset-Based ($8.97). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Financial Bankshares, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides banking services in the United States. The company offers general commercial banking services, including checking, savings and time deposits, loans, automated teller machines, drive-in and night deposit services, safe deposit facilities, remote deposit capture, internet banking, mobile …
Full company description
First Financial Bankshares, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides banking services in the United States. The company offers general commercial banking services, including checking, savings and time deposits, loans, automated teller machines, drive-in and night deposit services, safe deposit facilities, remote deposit capture, internet banking, mobile banking, payroll cards, funds transfer, and other customary commercial banking service, as well as securities brokerage services. It also provides personal trust services, such as wealth management; administration of estates, oil and gas management; farm and ranch; property management; testamentary trusts; revocable and irrevocable trusts; and agency accounts. In addition, the company offers commercial and industrial; municipal; agricultural; construction and development; farm; residential; consumer auto and non-auto; and non-owner occupied and owner occupied commercial real estate loans. Further, it provides advice and specialized services related to lending, investing, purchasing, advertising, public relations, and technology services. First Financial Bankshares, Inc. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Abilene, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Financial Bankshares, Inc reported revenue of $826M in FY2025 versus $506M in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
FFIN screens 34% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) Buyback Extension Puts Its Valuation Back In Focus
- Why First Financial Bankshares (FFIN) is a Great Dividend Stock Right Now
- FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES ANNOUNCES 2026 SHARE REPURCHASE PLAN
- Lake City Bank, First Hawaiian Bank, First Financial Bankshares, First Financial Bancorp, and Customers Bancorp Stocks Trade Up, What You Ne
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 92/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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