First Keystone Corporation (FKYS) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $112M

A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.87 – $20.69 · fair‑value band $9.56 – $15.94 · the $19.11 price screens above the $12.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

First Keystone Corporation (FKYS) currently trades at $19.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.75, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, First Keystone Corporation generated revenue of $41.8M at a net margin of 16.9%. Revenue grew 18.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. Net debt stands at $261M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $9.56 (bear case) to $15.94 (bull case); at $19.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -33%, FKYS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($12.75) versus Asset-Based ($12.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

First Keystone Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Keystone Community Bank that provides various banking and related financial services to individual, business, government, and public and institutional customers in Northeastern Pennsylvania market area.

Full company description

First Keystone Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Keystone Community Bank that provides various banking and related financial services to individual, business, government, and public and institutional customers in Northeastern Pennsylvania market area. The company accepts non-interest bearing and interest-bearing demand accounts; checking, savings, and money market accounts; time deposits and certificates of deposits; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial and industrial loans, which include short-term loans and lines of credit to finance machinery and equipment, inventory, and accounts receivable; commercial real estate loans secured primarily by commercial retail space, commercial office buildings, residential housing, and hotels; residential real estate loans, such as one-to-four family residential mortgage loans, home equity term loans, and home equity lines of credit; and consumer loans, including vehicle loans, stock secured loans, and loans secured by financial institution deposits, as well as agricultural loans, and state and political subdivisions loans. In addition, the company provides trust and agency services that include trust investment accounts, investment advisory services, mutual funds, estate planning, and management of pension and profit-sharing plans to individuals, corporations, and others. Further, it offers debit and credit cards, and safe deposit boxes, as well as operates full-service offices and automated teller machines located in Columbia, Luzerne, Montour, Monroe, and Northampton counties. First Keystone Corporation was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Berwick, Pennsylvania.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

First Keystone Corporation reported revenue of $83.3M in FY2025 versus $48.3M in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2M in FY2025, compounding −19.6%/yr from FY2021.

FKYS screens 33% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.