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First Keystone Corp (FKYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of First Keystone Corp $14.70, price $18.52, upside -20.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US3206542058

FK First Keystone Corp logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

First Keystone Corp

FKYS · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $14.70 · Overvalued (−21%)
!Quality 53/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·6.05% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$20.69 $9.87 Fair Value $14.70 Sep 2019 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.87 – $20.69 · fair‑value band $11.02 – $18.37 · the $18.52 price screens above the $14.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

First Keystone Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Keystone Community Bank that provides various banking and related financial services to individual, business, government, and public and institutional customers in Northeastern Pennsylvania market area.

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First Keystone Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Keystone Community Bank that provides various banking and related financial services to individual, business, government, and public and institutional customers in Northeastern Pennsylvania market area. The company accepts non-interest bearing and interest-bearing demand accounts; checking, savings, and money market accounts; time deposits and certificates of deposits; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial and industrial loans, which include short-term loans and lines of credit to finance machinery and equipment, inventory, and accounts receivable; commercial real estate loans secured primarily by commercial retail space, commercial office buildings, residential housing, and hotels; residential real estate loans, such as one-to-four family residential mortgage loans, home equity term loans, and home equity lines of credit; and consumer loans, including vehicle loans, stock secured loans, and loans secured by financial institution deposits, as well as agricultural loans, and state and political subdivisions loans. In addition, the company provides trust and agency services that include trust investment accounts, investment advisory services, mutual funds, estate planning, and management of pension and profit-sharing plans to individuals, corporations, and others. Further, it offers debit and credit cards, and safe deposit boxes, as well as operates full-service offices and automated teller machines located in Columbia, Luzerne, Montour, Monroe, and Northampton counties. First Keystone Corporation was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Berwick, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

First Keystone Corp (FKYS) currently trades at $18.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.70, implying the stock looks roughly 26.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.75 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $18.52 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.08, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $11.02 (bear) to $18.37 (bull), the price of $18.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

First Keystone Corp reported revenue of $83.3M in FY2025 versus $48.3M in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2M in FY2025, compounding −19.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $115M · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $1.13 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −21%, FKYS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.02 Fair Value $14.70 Bull $18.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $12.56 $12.29 $10.56 76
P/E Multiple $9.56 $12.75 $15.94 63
P/B Multiple $12.51 $16.67 $20.84 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.56 $12.75 $15.94 63
P/B Multiple $12.51 $16.67 $20.84 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.01 $12.08 $18.03 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.56 $12.29 $10.56 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs −5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

FKYS screens 26% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.16× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.76× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 10.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 31.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)94 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)42 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.48 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.20 HK$62.32 +22%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.72 €4.04 −40%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.56 $6.79 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹728.90 ₹406.44 −44%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $224.03 $159.52 −29%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Keystone Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FKYS

Frequently asked questions

Is First Keystone Corp (FKYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.70 versus a price of $18.52, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FKYS?
Our model-based fair value for First Keystone Corp is $14.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.52.
What is the quality score of FKYS?
First Keystone Corp has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $18.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Keystone Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.70, about −21% upside versus a price of $18.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $18.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
First Keystone Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $41.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does First Keystone Corp pay a dividend?
First Keystone Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Keystone Corp would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FKYS use?
Our models discount First Keystone Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Keystone Corp that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Keystone Corp (FKYS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Keystone Corp grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Keystone Corp (FKYS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Keystone Corp (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.66 %: that much free cash flow First Keystone Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Keystone Corp it is $14.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.52. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Keystone Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FKYS trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.52, fair value $14.70, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FKYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.70). For First Keystone Corp the two are $3.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Keystone Corp worth?
The market values First Keystone Corp at about $115M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.52; our models calculate a fair value of $14.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FKYS?
Our models span a range for First Keystone Corp: cautious scenario $11.02, base $14.70, optimistic $18.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FKYS?
First Keystone Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 31.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Keystone Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FKYS from its 52-week high?
First Keystone Corp trades at $18.52, about 4% below its 52-week high of $19.32 and 19% above the low of $15.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Keystone Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Keystone Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.52, calculated fair value $14.70 (−21%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FKYS calculated?
We run First Keystone Corp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. First Keystone Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $18.52. Our model-based fair value is $14.70, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Keystone Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Keystone Corp (FKYS) come from?
Earnings per share at First Keystone Corp grew −6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −13.0 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Keystone Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The market capitalisation of First Keystone Corp is $115M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Keystone Corp is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Earnings per share at First Keystone Corp are $1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The dividend yield of First Keystone Corp is 6.0% (payout 99.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The net margin of First Keystone Corp is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Keystone Corp is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Keystone Corp is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
The operating margin of First Keystone Corp is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Revenue at First Keystone Corp is growing +18.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Keystone Corp (FKYS)?
Earnings per share at First Keystone Corp are growing +83.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Keystone Corp (FKYS) carry?
The net debt of First Keystone Corp is $261M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 23.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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