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First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of First Community Financial Corporation $11.12, price $12.93, upside -14.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US3198361020

FC First Community Financial Corporation logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

First Community Financial Corporation

FMFP · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $11.12 · Overvalued (−14%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +82.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.85% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Weak on valuation: 15 out of 100
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$20.98 $9.31 Fair Value $11.12 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.31 – $20.98 · fair‑value band $8.34 – $13.91 · the $12.93 price screens above the $11.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

First Community Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Pennian Bank that provides various banking and related financial services for consumer and commercial customers in Pennsylvania, the United States.

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First Community Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Pennian Bank that provides various banking and related financial services for consumer and commercial customers in Pennsylvania, the United States. The company offers checking, savings, and money market accounts; health savings and individual retirement accounts; certificates of deposit; commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential, and consumer loans, as well as home equity lines of credit; and agricultural loans comprising lines of credit, term loans, operating loans, livestock financing, farm purchase loans, and loans for improvement. It also provides business loans, such as commercial lines of credit, commercial real estate, commercial term loans, small business loans, and additional business loans; and professional practice loans in healthcare, accounting, legal services, and veterinary practices. In addition, the company offers wealth management services, including investment management, financial planning, trust and estate services, and retirement planning options; credit and debit cards; safe deposit box, ATM, stop payment, wire transfer, and foreign currency order; remote deposit capture, automated clearing house, positive pay, autobooks, and merchant services; and online services, such as mobile deposit and wallet, digital banking, eStatements, and telebanc services. Further, it provides auto insurance products for cars, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and others; business insurance for general liability, commercial property, business owners, cyber liability, and workers' compensation; and home and property insurance for dwelling, personal property, liability protection, other structures, and renters insurance. First Community Financial Corporation was founded in 1864 and is based in Mifflintown, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) currently trades at $12.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.12, implying the stock looks roughly 16.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $11.93 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $12.93 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.29, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $8.34 (bear) to $13.91 (bull), the price of $12.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

First Community Financial Corporation reported revenue of $35.4M in FY2025 versus $24.6M in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1M in FY2025, compounding −20.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $36.6M · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $0.7400 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −14%, FMFP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.34 Fair Value $11.12 Bull $13.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4626 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $12.05 $11.93 $10.82 76
Gordon GGM $0.7900 $1.57 $2.38 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7900 $1.29 $1.66 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.7900 $1.57 $2.38 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7900 $1.29 $1.66 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $7.23 $9.64 $12.05 63
P/B Multiple $9.45 $12.60 $15.76 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.12 $10.88 $16.24 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.05 $11.93 $10.82 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 5%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.9% a year for the price.

FMFP screens 16% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −14% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.80× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.58× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 14.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)17 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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First Community Financial Corporation · Fair Value
$11.12 −16%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Community Financial Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FMFP

Frequently asked questions

Is First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.12 versus a price of $12.93, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FMFP?
Our model-based fair value for First Community Financial Corporation is $11.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.93.
What is the quality score of FMFP?
First Community Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.34, optimistic scenario $13.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Community Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.12, about −14% upside versus a price of $12.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.34, optimistic scenario $13.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
First Community Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does First Community Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
First Community Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Community Financial Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FMFP use?
Our models discount First Community Financial Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Community Financial Corporation that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Community Financial Corporation grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Community Financial Corporation (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.99 %: that much free cash flow First Community Financial Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Community Financial Corporation it is $11.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.93. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Community Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FMFP trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.93, fair value $11.12, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FMFP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.12). For First Community Financial Corporation the two are $1.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Community Financial Corporation worth?
The market values First Community Financial Corporation at about $36.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.93; our models calculate a fair value of $11.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FMFP?
Our models span a range for First Community Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $8.34, base $11.12, optimistic $13.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FMFP?
First Community Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Community Financial Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FMFP from its 52-week high?
First Community Financial Corporation trades at $12.93, about 13% below its 52-week high of $14.81 and 9% above the low of $11.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Community Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Community Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.93, calculated fair value $11.12 (−14%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FMFP calculated?
We run First Community Financial Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. First Community Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.93. Our model-based fair value is $11.12, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Community Financial Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) come from?
Earnings per share at First Community Financial Corporation grew −10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −17.4 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Community Financial Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The market capitalisation of First Community Financial Corporation is $36.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Community Financial Corporation is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Earnings per share at First Community Financial Corporation are $0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The dividend yield of First Community Financial Corporation is 0.9% (payout 14.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The net margin of First Community Financial Corporation is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Community Financial Corporation is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Community Financial Corporation is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
The operating margin of First Community Financial Corporation is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Revenue at First Community Financial Corporation is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP)?
Earnings per share at First Community Financial Corporation are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Community Financial Corporation (FMFP) carry?
The net debt of First Community Financial Corporation is $10.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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