First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc $195, price $230, upside -15.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.43 – $234.13 · fair‑value band $147.32 – $335.08 · the $230.00 price screens above the $195.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for American Commercial Bank & Trust, National Association that provides a range of banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in Yorkville, Streator, Schaumburg, Ottawa, Morris, Lisle, Chicago, and Joliet, Illinois.
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First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for American Commercial Bank & Trust, National Association that provides a range of banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in Yorkville, Streator, Schaumburg, Ottawa, Morris, Lisle, Chicago, and Joliet, Illinois. The company offers personal banking services, including checking and savings accounts; time deposits; certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts; mortgage loans; consumer lending; trust and estate services; personal and fiduciary services; safe deposit boxes; credit cards; and bill payment and online and mobile banking services. It also provides business banking services, such as e-business checking accounts; commercial checking accounts; commercial checking NOW accounts; deposit sweep and cash management balance accounts; commercial savings accounts; commercial money market accounts; non-profit NOW accounts; commercial lines of credit, commercial loans, commercial construction and development loans, real estate loans, and letters of credit; and agriculture lending and farm management services. In addition, the company offers home equity loans and residential loans. First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is based in Ottawa, Illinois.
Stock analysis
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) currently trades at $230.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $195.12, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $198.06 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $230.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $94.79, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $147.32 (bear) to $335.08 (bull), the price of $230.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $125M in FY2025 versus $48.6M in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was $25.0M in FY2025, compounding +21.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $215M · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $27.74 · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% · Operating margin 51.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −15%, FOTB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $147.32Fair Value $195.12Bull $335.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($20.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.50% vs 20%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 27%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.6% a year for the price.
Compare First Ottawa Bancshares Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)33% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $195.12 versus a price of $230.00, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FOTB?
Our model-based fair value for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $195.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $230.00.
What is the quality score of FOTB?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $195.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $147.32, optimistic scenario $335.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $195.12, about −15% upside versus a price of $230.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $147.32, optimistic scenario $335.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $75.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Ottawa Bancshares Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FOTB use?
Our models discount First Ottawa Bancshares Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Ottawa Bancshares Inc that is -11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc grew +27.0 % a year. The price currently implies -11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (-11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.65 %: that much free cash flow First Ottawa Bancshares Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Ottawa Bancshares Inc it is $195.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $230.00. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FOTB trades above its calculated fair value: price $230.00, fair value $195.12, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FOTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($230.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($195.12). For First Ottawa Bancshares Inc the two are $34.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc worth?
The market values First Ottawa Bancshares Inc at about $215M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $230.00; our models calculate a fair value of $195.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FOTB?
Our models span a range for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc: cautious scenario $147.32, base $195.12, optimistic $335.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $230.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FOTB?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $195.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FOTB from its 52-week high?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc trades at $230.00, about 2% below its 52-week high of $234.13 and 53% above the low of $150.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $195.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Ottawa Bancshares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $230.00, calculated fair value $195.12 (−15%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FOTB calculated?
We run First Ottawa Bancshares Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $195.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. First Ottawa Bancshares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $230.00. Our model-based fair value is $195.12, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Ottawa Bancshares Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($147.32 to $335.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) come from?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc grew +20.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.1 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The market capitalisation of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $215M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc are $27.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The net margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 20.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The operating margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 51.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Revenue at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is growing +18.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc are growing +323% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) carry?
The net debt of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $104M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026