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First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 3, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock $202, price $241, that is 16.1% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

FO First Ottawa Bancshares Inc logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

First Ottawa Bancshares Inc

FOTB · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 32.9% net margin (TTM)
0.3% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +28% vs. a year ago.
Quality 51/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.0 %/yr in USD)
Wide moat 71/100 · thin data
Fair value $202.33 · Overvalued
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$244.99 $24.43 Fair Value $202.33 Jul 2015 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.43 – $244.99 · fair‑value band $144.47 – $305.11 · the $241.25 price screens above the $202.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for American Commercial Bank & Trust, National Association that provides a range of banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in Yorkville, Streator, Schaumburg, Ottawa, Morris, Lisle, Chicago, and Joliet, Illinois.

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The company offers personal banking services, including checking and savings accounts; time deposits; certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts; mortgage loans; consumer lending; trust and estate services; personal and fiduciary services; safe deposit boxes; credit cards; and bill payment and online and mobile banking services.

It also provides business banking services, such as e-business checking accounts; commercial checking accounts; commercial checking NOW accounts; deposit sweep and cash management balance accounts; commercial savings accounts; commercial money market accounts; non-profit NOW accounts; commercial lines of credit, commercial loans, commercial construction and development loans, real estate loans, and letters of credit; and agriculture lending and farm management services.

In addition, the company offers home equity loans and residential loans. First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is based in Ottawa, Illinois.

Stock analysis

First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) currently trades at $241.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $202.33, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $244.09 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $241.25 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $91.46, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $144.47 (bear) to $305.11 (bull), the price of $241.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

First Ottawa Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $125M in FY2025 versus $48.6M in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was $25.0M in FY2025, compounding +21.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $231M Micro · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) $28.33 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 32.9% · Return on equity 19.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −16%, FOTB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $144.47 Fair Value $202.33 Bull $305.11
Price $241.25 · Downside -16.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($23.65 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $144.47 $202.33 $351.36 73
Gordon GGM $11.12 $19.79 $26.96 68
DDM Multi-Stage $11.12 $18.20 $21.17 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $11.12 $19.79 $26.96 68
DDM Multi-Stage $11.12 $18.20 $21.17 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $251.84 $335.79 $419.73 63
P/B Multiple $114.29 $152.39 $190.48 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $68.25 $91.46 $136.51 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $144.47 $202.33 $351.36 73

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 87
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 42
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 70
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 68
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 99
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 60
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.3% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.49.8% vs 19.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 27%
2025 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

FOTB screens overvalued: fair value 16% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −16.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 19.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 32.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 50.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 27.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 8.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.87× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 6.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)12 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)79 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)6 · sector 52

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.62 ¥7.59 +35% vs FOTB
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥43.01 ¥52.73 +23% vs FOTB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €93.98 €106.01 +13% vs FOTB
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,042 ₹736.65 −29% vs FOTB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.35 €4.49 −29% vs FOTB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs FOTB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €81.62 €50.44 −38% vs FOTB
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs FOTB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹798.15 ₹406.39 −49% vs FOTB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,589 ₹615.63 −61% vs FOTB

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First Ottawa Bancshares Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Ottawa Bancshares Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FOTB

Frequently asked questions

Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $202.33 versus a price of $241.25, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FOTB?
Our model-based fair value for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $202.33 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $241.25.
What is the quality score of FOTB?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $202.33 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $144.47, optimistic scenario $305.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $202.33, about 16% lower versus a price of $241.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $144.47, optimistic scenario $305.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $80.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does First Ottawa Bancshares Inc pay a dividend?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc pays a dividend of $0.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 2.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Ottawa Bancshares Inc it is $202.33 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $241.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FOTB trades above its calculated fair value: price $241.25, fair value $202.33, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FOTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($241.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($202.33). For First Ottawa Bancshares Inc the two are $38.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc worth?
The market values First Ottawa Bancshares Inc at about $231M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $241.25; our models calculate a fair value of $202.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FOTB?
Our models span a range for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc: cautious scenario $144.47, base $202.33, optimistic $305.11 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $241.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FOTB?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $202.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 19.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FOTB from its 52-week high?
First Ottawa Bancshares Inc trades at $241.25, about 2% below its 52-week high of $244.99 and 58% above the low of $152.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $202.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Ottawa Bancshares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Ottawa Bancshares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $241.25, calculated fair value $202.33 (−16%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FOTB calculated?
We run First Ottawa Bancshares Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $202.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. First Ottawa Bancshares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The closing price on Nov 3, 2026 was $241.25. Our model-based fair value is $202.33, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Ottawa Bancshares Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($144.47 to $305.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) come from?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc grew +20.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.1 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The market capitalisation of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $231M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 2.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc are $28.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The dividend yield of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 0.3% (payout 2.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The net margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 32.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
The operating margin of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is 50.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Revenue at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is growing +27.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB)?
Earnings per share at First Ottawa Bancshares Inc are growing +15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) generate?
The free cash flow of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $33.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does First Ottawa Bancshares Inc (FOTB) carry?
The net debt of First Ottawa Bancshares Inc is $104M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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