First National Corp (FXNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of First National Corp $15.22, price $29.63, upside -48.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch First National Corp for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.29 – $32.37 · fair‑value band $14.18 – $17.08 · the $29.63 price screens above the $15.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow First National in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether First National is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, individuals, estates, local governmental entities, and non-profit organizations in Virginia.
Show more
First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, individuals, estates, local governmental entities, and non-profit organizations in Virginia. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and treasury management solutions. Its loan products also comprise construction loans, including residential and land development loans; 1-4 family residential real estate loans; and commercial real estate loans that are secured by commercial real estate, such as multi-family residential buildings, industrial and warehouse buildings, hotels, and religious facilities. In addition, the company's loan products include commercial and industrial loans; home equity loans; consumer loans, such as lines of credit, automobile loans, and unsecured loans. Further, it provides wealth management services comprising estate planning, investment management of assets, trustee under an agreement, trustee under a will, and estate settlement. Additionally, the company offers title insurance and investment services; and holds other real estate owned and office sites, as well as provides internet and mobile banking, remote deposit capture, and other traditional banking services. First National Corporation was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Strasburg, Virginia.
Stock analysis
First National Corp (FXNC) currently trades at $29.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.22, implying the stock looks roughly 94.7% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.46 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $29.63 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.76, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.18 (bear) to $17.08 (bull), the price of $29.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
First National Corp reported revenue of $112M in FY2025 versus $46.2M in FY2021, a compound +24.9%/yr. Reported net income was $17.7M in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $267M · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) $2.32 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 15.8% · Return on equity 11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −49%, FXNC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.18Fair Value $15.22Bull $17.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)24% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.43× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.00× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF12.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)53· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)47· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First National Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FXNC
Frequently asked questions
Is First National Corp (FXNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.22 versus a price of $29.63, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FXNC?
Our model-based fair value for First National Corp is $15.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.63.
What is the quality score of FXNC?
First National Corp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First National Corp (FXNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.18, optimistic scenario $17.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First National Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.22, about −49% upside versus a price of $29.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.18, optimistic scenario $17.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First National Corp (FXNC)?
First National Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $89.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does First National Corp pay a dividend?
First National Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into First National Corp (FXNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First National Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -8.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FXNC use?
Our models discount First National Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First National Corp that is -8.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First National Corp (FXNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First National Corp grew +22.9 % a year. The price currently implies -8.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First National Corp (FXNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First National Corp (-8.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.86 %: that much free cash flow First National Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First National Corp (FXNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First National Corp it is $15.22 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $29.63. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First National Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FXNC trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.63, fair value $15.22, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FXNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.22). For First National Corp the two are $14.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First National Corp worth?
The market values First National Corp at about $267M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $29.63; our models calculate a fair value of $15.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FXNC?
Our models span a range for First National Corp: cautious scenario $14.18, base $15.22, optimistic $17.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $29.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FXNC?
First National Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.22 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.9 (reported for FY2025: 15.1). Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of First National Corp (FXNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for First National Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.8%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FXNC from its 52-week high?
First National Corp trades at $29.63, about 8% below its 52-week high of $32.37 and 39% above the low of $21.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First National Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First National Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $29.63, calculated fair value $15.22 (−49%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FXNC calculated?
We run First National Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. First National Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $29.63. Our model-based fair value is $15.22, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First National Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First National Corp (FXNC) come from?
Earnings per share at First National Corp grew +3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of First National Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The market capitalisation of First National Corp is $267M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First National Corp is 2.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First National Corp (FXNC)?
Earnings per share at First National Corp are $2.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The dividend yield of First National Corp is 2.2% (payout 28.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The net margin of First National Corp is 15.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First National Corp is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First National Corp (FXNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First National Corp is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First National Corp (FXNC)?
The operating margin of First National Corp is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First National Corp (FXNC)?
Revenue at First National Corp is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First National Corp (FXNC)?
Earnings per share at First National Corp are growing +203% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does First National Corp (FXNC) hold?
First National Corp holds more cash than debt, $118M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch First National Corp in the live analysis
One click puts First National Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026