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Gaia, Inc (GAIA) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $60.2M

GI Gaia, Inc logo Gaia, Inc GAIA · US
Price$1.91
Fair Value$2.16
Upside+13.1%
Quality37/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -4.8% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: Low Range $1.61 – $2.71 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated 36 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $3.14 to $2.16 (−31.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −5.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 13% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • Our model range runs from $1.61 (bear) to $2.71 (bull), base $2.16. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with low evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$13.67 $1.84 Fair Value $2.16 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.84 – $13.67 · fair‑value band $1.61 – $2.71 · the $1.91 price screens below the $2.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Gaia, Inc (GAIA) currently trades at $1.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.16, implying the stock looks roughly 13.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Gaia, Inc generated revenue of $99.4M at a net margin of -4.8%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.5%. Net debt stands at $1.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.61 (bear case) to $2.71 (bull case); at $1.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at 13%, GAIA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $3.27 $5.47 $7.10 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.27 $4.86 $5.89 61
EV/EBITDA $2.81 $3.61 $4.41 54
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.27 $5.47 $7.10 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.27 $4.86 $5.89 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.81 $3.61 $4.41 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.21 $2.96 $4.42 50

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($4.86) versus Asset-Based ($2.96). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $99.4M
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.0%
Net margin -4.8%
Return on equity -5.5%
Free cash flow −$377K FY2025
Operating margin -5.9%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.1900
EPS growth (YoY) -87.8%
Net debt $1.3M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 15
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 12
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Gaia, Inc. operates a digital video subscription service and online community for underserved member base in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally.

Full company description

Gaia, Inc. operates a digital video subscription service and online community for underserved member base in the United States, Canada, Australia, and internationally. The company's network comprises Seeking Truth that provides topics that include ancient wisdom and metaphysics; Transformation channel that offers content in the areas of spiritual growth, personal development, and expanded consciousness; Alternative Healing channel focuses on food and nutrition, holistic healing, alternative and integrative medicines, and longevity; and Yoga channel, which provides access to streaming yoga, Eastern arts, and other movement based classes. The company was formerly known as Gaiam, Inc. and changed its name to Gaia, Inc. in July 2016. Gaia, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Louisville, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gaia, Inc reported revenue of $99.0M in FY2025 versus $79.6M in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 30/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$99.0M
Latest YoY
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Revenue +5.6%/yr
FY21 $79.6M
FY22 $82.0M
FY23 $80.4M
FY24 $90.4M
FY25 $99.0M
Net income
FY21 $3.7M
FY22 −$2.7M
FY23 −$5.8M
FY24 −$5.2M
FY25 −$4.5M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gaia, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GAIA

Peer Group

Entertainment · 265 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Return on assets -2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -6% · Below median
Revenue growth 2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.06× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.61× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 23.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.23× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 51 · sector 6
FUTURE 10 · sector 10
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc ZNFL C$6.77 C$2.96 -56%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $96.30 $89.55 -7%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $26.87 $9.13 -66%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $178.44 $46.89 -74%
Universal Music Group UMG €18.91 €14.78 -22%
TKO Group TKO $184.40 $22.16 -88%
Empresas Cablevisión, S.A. CABLECPO 55.00 MXN 60.49 MXN +10%
Beijing Enlight Media Co 300251 ¥11.77 ¥10.97 -7%
PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk, MSIN 456.00 IDR 221.09 IDR -52%
Prime Focus Limited PFOCUS ₹298.25 ₹63.45 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Gaia, Inc (GAIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.16 versus a price of $1.91, about +13% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GAIA?
Our model-based fair value for Gaia, Inc is $2.16 (as of Jul 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $1.91.
What is the quality score of GAIA?
Gaia, Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gaia, Inc (GAIA)?
Gaia, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $99.4M (latest available figure, as of Jul 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GAIA?
The net profit margin of Gaia, Inc is about -4.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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