Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Golub Capital BDC Inc stock $18.83, price $12.74, upside +47.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.91 – $13.55 · fair‑value band $13.60 – $23.54 · the $12.74 price screens below the $18.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company.
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It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors.
It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States.
It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.
Stock analysis
Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) currently trades at $12.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.83, implying the stock looks roughly 32% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $59.70 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the $12.74 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.28, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.60 (bear) to $23.54 (bull), the price of $12.74 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Golub Capital BDC Inc reported revenue of $871M in FY2025 versus $349M in FY2021, a compound +25.6%/yr. Reported net income was $376M in FY2025, compounding +2.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 4.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.6600 · Dividend yield 11.3% · Net margin 21.5% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 48%, GBDC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.60Fair Value $18.83Bull$23.54
Price $12.74 · Upside +47.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $43.8M and none bought.
SaleDavid GolubChairman & CEO, Director1,676,387 shares at $13.06$21.9MAug 7, 2026
SaleLawrence E GolubDirector1,676,387 shares at $13.06$21.9MAug 7, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.5%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.4% vs −0.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.82% → 79%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Sponsor origination support helps sustain credit discipline and low non-accruals, yet weak cash conversion plus negative operating and free cash flow constrain durability.
Main risk: High competition together with negative cash flow could erode the durability of credit quality and selective origination in the BDC structure.
Golub Capital BDC draws on its sponsor's large origination platform yet took only a small slice of new senior secured loans last quarter while keeping non-accruals at a low 1.9 percent. That discipline supports credit quality in a sector showing rising stress, but it also caps portfolio growth. Will the full-year results due in November confirm that selectivity protects value or reveal that it leaves returns on the table?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+47.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)77.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−14.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)11.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Golub Capital BDC Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBDC
Frequently asked questions
Is Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.83 versus a price of $12.74, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GBDC?
Our model-based fair value for Golub Capital BDC Inc is $18.83 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.74.
What is the quality score of GBDC?
Golub Capital BDC Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.83 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.60, optimistic scenario $23.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Golub Capital BDC Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.83, about +48% upside versus a price of $12.74 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.60, optimistic scenario $23.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Golub Capital BDC Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $801M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Golub Capital BDC Inc pay a dividend?
Golub Capital BDC Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 11.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Golub Capital BDC Inc pays a dividend of $1.44 per share a year, a dividend yield of 11.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Golub Capital BDC Inc it is $18.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $12.74. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Golub Capital BDC Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, GBDC trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.74, fair value $18.83, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.83). For Golub Capital BDC Inc the two are $6.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Golub Capital BDC Inc worth?
The market values Golub Capital BDC Inc at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $12.74; our models calculate a fair value of $18.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBDC?
Our models span a range for Golub Capital BDC Inc: cautious scenario $13.60, base $18.83, optimistic $23.54 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $12.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBDC?
Golub Capital BDC Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.83 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.8, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GBDC?
The PEG ratio of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Golub Capital BDC Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBDC from its 52-week high?
Golub Capital BDC Inc trades at $12.74, about 3% below its 52-week high of $13.11 and 15% above the low of $11.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Golub Capital BDC Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Golub Capital BDC Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $12.74, calculated fair value $18.83 (+48%), Quality Score 46/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBDC calculated?
We run Golub Capital BDC Inc through 8 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Golub Capital BDC Inc currently trades 32% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.74. Our model-based fair value is $18.83, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Golub Capital BDC Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) come from?
Earnings per share at Golub Capital BDC Inc grew +0.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Golub Capital BDC Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The market capitalisation of Golub Capital BDC Inc is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 4.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Earnings per share at Golub Capital BDC Inc are $0.6600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The dividend yield of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 11.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The net margin of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 21.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
The operating margin of Golub Capital BDC Inc is 77.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Revenue at Golub Capital BDC Inc is growing −14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC)?
Earnings per share at Golub Capital BDC Inc are growing −35.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) generate?
The free cash flow of Golub Capital BDC Inc is −$114M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Golub Capital BDC Inc (GBDC) carry?
The net debt of Golub Capital BDC Inc is $4.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026