GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what GCM Grosvenor Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.37 – $14.05 · fair‑value band $7.33 – $19.90 · the $13.29 price screens below the $13.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 22, 2026.
GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities.
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GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses on hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses on primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, early venture, mid venture, late venture, turnaround, mature, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging growth, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Europe, Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. It prefers to have majority stakes in its portfolio companies. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices across North America, Asia, Australia and Europe. GCM Grosvenor Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Grosvenor Capital Management Holdings, LLLP.
Stock analysis
GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) currently trades at $13.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.80, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $22.09 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $13.29 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.33, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.33 (bear) to $19.90 (bull), the price of $13.29 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
GCM Grosvenor Inc reported revenue of $550M in FY2025 versus $578M in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was $45.4M in FY2025, compounding +20.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $815M · P/E ratio 27.1 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 98.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 4%, GCMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.33Fair Value $13.80Bull $19.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0218 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−28.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 27%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 19.1%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)99% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity15.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.80 versus a price of $13.29, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GCMG?
Our model-based fair value for GCM Grosvenor Inc is $13.80 (as of Sep 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.29.
What is the quality score of GCMG?
GCM Grosvenor Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.80 (as of Sep 22, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.33, optimistic scenario $19.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCM Grosvenor Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.80, about +4% upside versus a price of $13.29 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.33, optimistic scenario $19.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
GCM Grosvenor Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $553M (latest available figure, as of Sep 22, 2026).
Does GCM Grosvenor Inc pay a dividend?
GCM Grosvenor Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GCM Grosvenor Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GCMG use?
Our models discount GCM Grosvenor Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GCM Grosvenor Inc that is +8.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GCM Grosvenor Inc grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies +8.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GCM Grosvenor Inc (+8.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.68 %: that much free cash flow GCM Grosvenor Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCM Grosvenor Inc it is $13.80 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026), against a price of $13.29. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCM Grosvenor Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 22, 2026, GCMG trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.29, fair value $13.80, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.80). For GCM Grosvenor Inc the two are $0.5100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCM Grosvenor Inc worth?
The market values GCM Grosvenor Inc at about $815M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 22, 2026). Per share that is $13.29; our models calculate a fair value of $13.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCMG?
Our models span a range for GCM Grosvenor Inc: cautious scenario $7.33, base $13.80, optimistic $19.90 per share (as of Sep 22, 2026, price $13.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GCMG?
GCM Grosvenor Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.1 (as of Sep 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 30.2, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCM Grosvenor Inc (as of Sep 22, 2026): return on equity 98.7%, debt of 15.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCMG from its 52-week high?
GCM Grosvenor Inc trades at $13.29, about 3% below its 52-week high of $12.94 and 43% above the low of $9.30 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCM Grosvenor Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Investor AB, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCM Grosvenor Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 22, 2026: price $13.29, calculated fair value $13.80 (+4%), Quality Score 66/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCMG calculated?
We run GCM Grosvenor Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. GCM Grosvenor Inc currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $13.29. Our model-based fair value is $13.80, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCM Grosvenor Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($7.33 to $19.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of GCM Grosvenor Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The market capitalisation of GCM Grosvenor Inc is $815M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Earnings per share at GCM Grosvenor Inc are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The dividend yield of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 3.5% (payout 95.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The net margin of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 98.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
The operating margin of GCM Grosvenor Inc is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Revenue at GCM Grosvenor Inc is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG)?
Earnings per share at GCM Grosvenor Inc are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) carry?
The net debt of GCM Grosvenor Inc is $238M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 22, 2026