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Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Great Elm Capital Corp $8.96, price $5.27, upside +70.0%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US3903201099

GE Great Elm Capital Corp logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Great Elm Capital Corp

GECC · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $8.96 · Strongly undervalued (+70%)
!Quality 24/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +13.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -70.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Insider activity 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$10.11 $4.42 Fair Value $8.96 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.42 – $10.11 · fair‑value band $8.37 – $9.83 · the $5.27 price screens below the $8.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Great Elm Capital Corp. is a business development company which specializes in loan and mezzanine, middle market investments. It invests in the debt instruments of middle market companies. The fund prefers to invest in media, commercial services and supplies, healthcare, telecommunication services, communications equipment.

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Great Elm Capital Corp. is a business development company which specializes in loan and mezzanine, middle market investments. It invests in the debt instruments of middle market companies. The fund prefers to invest in media, commercial services and supplies, healthcare, telecommunication services, communications equipment. It typically makes equity investments between $3 million and $10 million in companies with revenues between $3 million and $75 million.

Stock analysis

Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC) currently trades at $5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.96, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $10.31 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $5.27 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.45, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $8.37 (bear) to $9.83 (bull), the price of $5.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Great Elm Capital Corp reported revenue of $44.5M in FY2025 versus −$6.6M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$31.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $76.0M · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) $−2.66 · Net margin −71.5% · Return on equity −27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 97.8% · Revenue (TTM) $47.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 70%, GECC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.37 Fair Value $8.96 Bull $9.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $9.65 $10.31 $11.29 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.65 $11.17 $13.06 67
NCAV (Graham) $4.07 $5.45 $8.13 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.65 $10.31 $11.29 69
DDM Multi-Stage $9.65 $11.17 $13.06 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.07 $5.45 $8.13 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
60.9% (2011) → −28.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 656 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +69% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −70% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 98% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −24% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 26.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.67× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.62× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 56
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)37 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 81

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $117.21 $52.29 −55%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $97.21 $29.25 −70%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.36 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $179.95 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $502.79 $579.51 +15%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $158.23 $312.27 +97%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.57 $209.14 +100%

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Great Elm Capital Corp · Fair Value
$8.96 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great Elm Capital Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GECC

Frequently asked questions

Is Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.96 versus a price of $5.27, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GECC?
Our model-based fair value for Great Elm Capital Corp is $8.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.27.
What is the quality score of GECC?
Great Elm Capital Corp has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.96 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.37, optimistic scenario $9.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Elm Capital Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.96, about +70% upside versus a price of $5.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.37, optimistic scenario $9.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Great Elm Capital Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $47.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Elm Capital Corp it is $8.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.27. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great Elm Capital Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GECC trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.27, fair value $8.96, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GECC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.96). For Great Elm Capital Corp the two are $3.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Elm Capital Corp worth?
The market values Great Elm Capital Corp at about $76.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.27; our models calculate a fair value of $8.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GECC?
Our models span a range for Great Elm Capital Corp: cautious scenario $8.37, base $8.96, optimistic $9.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Elm Capital Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −27.5%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GECC from its 52-week high?
Great Elm Capital Corp trades at $5.27, about 47% below its 52-week high of $9.88 and 16% above the low of $4.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Elm Capital Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Elm Capital Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.27, calculated fair value $8.96 (+70%), Quality Score 24/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GECC calculated?
We run Great Elm Capital Corp through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Great Elm Capital Corp currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.27. Our model-based fair value is $8.96, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Elm Capital Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Great Elm Capital Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The market capitalisation of Great Elm Capital Corp is $76.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Elm Capital Corp is 1.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Earnings per share at Great Elm Capital Corp are $−2.66. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The net margin of Great Elm Capital Corp is −71.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Elm Capital Corp is −27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Elm Capital Corp is 0.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
The operating margin of Great Elm Capital Corp is 97.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Revenue at Great Elm Capital Corp is growing −23.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)?
Earnings per share at Great Elm Capital Corp are growing −68.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC) generate?
The free cash flow of Great Elm Capital Corp is −$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC) carry?
The net debt of Great Elm Capital Corp is $187M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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