Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Jul 29, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
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Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company in New Zealand, French Polynesia, and Australia.
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Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company in New Zealand, French Polynesia, and Australia. The company focuses on the development and exploitation of the Chatham Rise rock phosphate deposit, which comprises a mining permit covering an area of 820 square kilometers located in New Zealand; and Makatea phosphate project that covers an area of 10.36 square kilometers located on Makatea Island, French Polynesia. Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF) currently trades at $0.0300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0255, 15.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0230 (bear) to $0.0281 (bull), the price of $0.0300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$5.2K in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$1.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5M · P/S ratio 39.0 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Return on equity −14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.2% · Revenue (TTM) $88.7K · Free cash flow −$1.3M · Net cash $5.8K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −15%, GELGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0230Fair Value $0.0255Bull $0.0281
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−92.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.2%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−24,173.6% (2018) → −441,747.6% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 449 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−8.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GELGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0255 versus a price of $0.0300, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GELGF?
Our model-based fair value for Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is $0.0255 (as of Jul 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0300.
What is the quality score of GELGF?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0255 (as of Jul 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0230, optimistic scenario $0.0281. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0255, about −15% upside versus a price of $0.0300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0230, optimistic scenario $0.0281. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $88.7K (latest available figure, as of Jul 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited it is $0.0255 per share (as of Jul 29, 2026), against a price of $0.0300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 29, 2026, GELGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0300, fair value $0.0255, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GELGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0255). For Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited the two are $0.0045 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited worth?
The market values Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited at about $3.5M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 29, 2026). Per share that is $0.0300; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GELGF?
Our models span a range for Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited: cautious scenario $0.0230, base $0.0255, optimistic $0.0281 per share (as of Jul 29, 2026, price $0.0300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (as of Jul 29, 2026): return on equity −14.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 29, 2026: price $0.0300, calculated fair value $0.0255 (−15%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GELGF calculated?
We run Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $0.0300. Our model-based fair value is $0.0255, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0281). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
The market capitalisation of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is $3.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is 39.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
Earnings per share at Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is −14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is −17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited is −$1.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited (GELGF) hold?
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited holds more cash than debt, $5.8K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Jul 29, 2026