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Geron Corporation (GERN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Geron Corporation stock $0.27, price $1.15, upside -76.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US

GC Geron Corporation logo Thin data Oct 27, 2026

Geron Corporation

GERN · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 77% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +273.5 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Fair value $0.2700 · Strongly overvalued (−76.5%)
Quality 38/100
Loss-making · -33.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.09 $0.9900 Fair Value $0.2700 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9900 – $5.09 · fair‑value band $0.1800 – $0.3400 · the $1.15 price screens above the $0.2700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Geron Corporation, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of therapeutics products for oncology.

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The company's product pipeline includes RYTELO, a telomerase inhibitor for the treatment of adult patients with low- to intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes with transfusion-dependent anemia; IMerge which is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes; IMpactMF that is in Phase 3 for the treatment of relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis; Impress which is in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat higher risk myelodysplastic syndromes and acute myeloid leukemia (AML); IMproveMF which is in Phase 1 clinical trial for the treatment of frontline myelofibrosis; and IMAGINE which is in phase 1/2 clinical trial for the treatment of relapsed/refractory AML. Geron Corporation was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

Stock analysis

Geron Corporation (GERN) currently trades at $1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2700, 76.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.1800 (bear) to $0.3400 (bull), the price of $1.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Geron Corporation reported revenue of $184M in FY2025 versus $1.4M in FY2021, a compound +239.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$85.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $771M Small · P/S ratio 3.85 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −33.1% · Return on equity −28.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −42.2% · Operating margin −22.0% · Revenue (TTM) $205M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −77%, GERN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1800 Fair Value $0.2700 Bull $0.3400
Price $1.15 · Upside -76.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.1800 $0.2700 $0.3400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1800 $0.2700 $0.3400 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 18
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 41
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 23
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 17
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+138.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+575.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+273.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−30,400.4% (2020) → −29.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GERN screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 597 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −76.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −15.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −33.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −22.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.53× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.41× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.77× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)86 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $816.10 $1,275 +56% vs GERN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $517.49 $569.24 +10% vs GERN
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,374,000 KRW 1,511,400 KRW +10% vs GERN
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$45.80 HK$50.38 +10% vs GERN
argenx SE ARGX $869.33 $908.40 +4% vs GERN
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $227.66 $217.88 −4% vs GERN
CSL Limited CSL A$196.78 A$178.75 −9% vs GERN
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $370.87 $254.12 −31% vs GERN
Celltrion, Inc 068270 188,600 KRW 74,944 KRW −60% vs GERN
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $64.76 $19.01 −71% vs GERN

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Geron Corporation · Fair Value
$0.2700 −77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geron Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GERN

Frequently asked questions

Is Geron Corporation (GERN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2700 versus a price of $1.15, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GERN?
Our model-based fair value for Geron Corporation is $0.2700 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.15.
What is the quality score of GERN?
Geron Corporation has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2700 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1800, optimistic scenario $0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Geron Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2700, about −77% upside versus a price of $1.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1800, optimistic scenario $0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Geron Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $205M (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Geron Corporation it is $0.2700 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of $1.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Geron Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, GERN trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.15, fair value $0.2700, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GERN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2700). For Geron Corporation the two are $0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Geron Corporation worth?
The market values Geron Corporation at about $771M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is $1.15; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GERN?
Our models span a range for Geron Corporation: cautious scenario $0.1800, base $0.2700, optimistic $0.3400 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price $1.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Geron Corporation (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −28.3%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GERN from its 52-week high?
Geron Corporation trades at $1.15, about 41% below its 52-week high of $1.95 and 7% above the low of $1.07 (as of Oct 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Geron Corporation?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Geron Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price $1.15, calculated fair value $0.2700 (−77%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GERN calculated?
We run Geron Corporation through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Geron Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The closing price on Oct 27, 2026 was $1.15. Our model-based fair value is $0.2700, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Geron Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1800 to $0.3400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Geron Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The market capitalisation of Geron Corporation is $771M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Geron Corporation is 3.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Earnings per share at Geron Corporation are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The net margin of Geron Corporation is −33.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Geron Corporation is −28.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Geron Corporation is −42.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Geron Corporation (GERN)?
The operating margin of Geron Corporation is −22.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Geron Corporation (GERN)?
Revenue at Geron Corporation is growing +17.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +576%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Geron Corporation (GERN) generate?
The free cash flow of Geron Corporation is −$111M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Geron Corporation (GERN) carry?
The net debt of Geron Corporation is $172M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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