Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B MXN 91.42, price MXN 102, upside -10.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 80.70 MXN – 132.09 MXN · fair‑value band 68.57 MXN – 114.28 MXN · the 101.83 MXN price screens above the 91.42 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A.B. provides various insurance products in Mexico. It offers car and motorcycle, medical expenses, life, education, retirement and savings, home, condominiums - common areas, damage, property, civil liability, transportation risk, accident, SSI, and RC officials and public servants insurance products.
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Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A.B. provides various insurance products in Mexico. It offers car and motorcycle, medical expenses, life, education, retirement and savings, home, condominiums - common areas, damage, property, civil liability, transportation risk, accident, SSI, and RC officials and public servants insurance products. The company provides its products and services primarily to individuals, businesses, and public sector customers. The company was incorporated in 1901 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP) currently trades at 101.83 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 91.42 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 128.07 MXN per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the 101.83 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 67.47 MXN, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 68.57 MXN (bear) to 114.28 MXN (bull), the price of 101.83 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B reported revenue of 117B MXN in FY2025 versus 75.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B MXN in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.4B MXN (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 114.4 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) 0.8900 MXN · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −10%, GNP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 68.57 MXNFair Value 91.42 MXNBull 114.28 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6510 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.4% a year for the price.
Compare Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNP
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 91.42 MXN versus a price of 101.83 MXN, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNP?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 91.42 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 101.83 MXN.
What is the quality score of GNP?
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 91.42 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 68.57 MXN, optimistic scenario 114.28 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 91.42 MXN, about −10% upside versus a price of 101.83 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 68.57 MXN, optimistic scenario 114.28 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 114B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B pay a dividend?
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B would have to grow free cash flow by -13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNP use?
Our models discount Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B that is -13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies -13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (-13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.17 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B it is 91.42 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 101.83 MXN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GNP trades above its calculated fair value: price 101.83 MXN, fair value 91.42 MXN, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (101.83 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (91.42 MXN). For Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B the two are 10.41 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B worth?
The market values Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B at about 26.4B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 101.83 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 91.42 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNP?
Our models span a range for Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B: cautious scenario 68.57 MXN, base 91.42 MXN, optimistic 114.28 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 101.83 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNP?
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 114.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 91.42 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GNP?
The PEG ratio of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 1.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNP from its 52-week high?
Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B trades at 101.83 MXN, about 14% below its 52-week high of 118.00 MXN and at the low of 101.83 MXN (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 91.42 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 101.83 MXN, calculated fair value 91.42 MXN (−10%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNP calculated?
We run Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 91.42 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 101.83 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 91.42 MXN, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 26.4B MXN (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B are 0.8900 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 114.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 6.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The net margin of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
The operating margin of Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Revenue at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B (GNP)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Nacional Provincial S.A.B are growing −90.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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