Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A. (GNP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · MX · Market cap 26.4B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +7.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (106.69 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 80.70 MXN – 132.09 MXN · fair‑value band 64.02 MXN – 106.69 MXN · the 118.00 MXN price screens above the 85.35 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A. (GNP) currently trades at 118.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 85.35 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 27.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A. generated revenue of 114B MXN at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 129.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 64.02 MXN (bear case) to 106.69 MXN (bull case); at 118.00 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -28%, GNP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (128.07 MXN) versus Asset-Based (67.47 MXN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A.B. provides various insurance products in Mexico. It offers car and motorcycle, medical expenses, life, education, retirement and savings, home, condominiums - common areas, damage, property, civil liability, transportation risk, accident, SSI, and RC officials and public servants insurance products.
Full company description
Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A.B. provides various insurance products in Mexico. It offers car and motorcycle, medical expenses, life, education, retirement and savings, home, condominiums - common areas, damage, property, civil liability, transportation risk, accident, SSI, and RC officials and public servants insurance products. The company provides its products and services primarily to individuals, businesses, and public sector customers. The company was incorporated in 1901 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Nacional Provincial, S.A. reported revenue of 117B MXN in FY2025 versus 75.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B MXN in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
GNP screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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