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Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grand River Commerce Inc $3.46, price $5.30, upside -34.8%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US3864411091

GR Grand River Commerce Inc logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Grand River Commerce Inc

GNRV · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $3.46 · Overvalued (−35%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$8.00 $2.52 Fair Value $3.46 Jun 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.52 – $8.00 · fair‑value band $2.58 – $3.46 · the $5.30 price screens above the $3.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Grand River Commerce, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Grand River Bank that provides various commercial and consumer banking products and services to businesses, professionals, and residents in Michigan. It operates through Commercial and Industrial; Commercial Real Estate; and Consumer segments.

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Grand River Commerce, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Grand River Bank that provides various commercial and consumer banking products and services to businesses, professionals, and residents in Michigan. It operates through Commercial and Industrial; Commercial Real Estate; and Consumer segments. The company offers interest and noninterest-bearing checking accounts, savings accounts, and time deposits; SBA lending products; home equity lines of credit and term loans; and commercial real estate and term loans, as well as lines of credit. It also provides car, boat, motorcycle, and RV loans; fixed mortgage, jumbo, physician, doctor, dentist, rural development, federal housing administration, VA, lot or vacant land, bridge, and community investment loans, as well as first-time homebuyer, construction financing, and refinance products. In addition, the company offers treasury management, fraud protection, merchant, ACH manager, lock box, bill pay, e-statement, remote deposit capture, wire, courier, night depository, online banking, bill pay, mobile deposit and banking services; and debit and credit cards. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Grandville, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV) currently trades at $5.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.46, implying the stock looks roughly 53.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $3.46 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $5.30 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.17, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.58 (bear) to $3.46 (bull), the price of $5.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Grand River Commerce Inc reported revenue of $13.2M in FY2025 versus $16.7M in FY2021, a compound −5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $636K in FY2025, compounding −33.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $37.3M · P/E ratio 58.9 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 19.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −35%, GNRV screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.58 Fair Value $3.46 Bull $3.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0661 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $3.55 $3.32 $2.51 71
P/E Multiple $0.8800 $1.17 $1.47 63
P/B Multiple $1.15 $1.54 $1.92 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.8800 $1.17 $1.47 63
P/B Multiple $1.15 $1.54 $1.92 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.58 $3.46 $5.16 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.55 $3.32 $2.51 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 15
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2018 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 20%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.4% a year for the price.

GNRV screens 53% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.91× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 58.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.74× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 33.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)8 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.74 $6.75 −37%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $224.03 $159.52 −29%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Grand River Commerce Inc · Fair Value
$3.46 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grand River Commerce Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNRV

Frequently asked questions

Is Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.46 versus a price of $5.30, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNRV?
Our model-based fair value for Grand River Commerce Inc is $3.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.30.
What is the quality score of GNRV?
Grand River Commerce Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $3.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grand River Commerce Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.46, about −35% upside versus a price of $5.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $3.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Grand River Commerce Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grand River Commerce Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +30.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNRV use?
Our models discount Grand River Commerce Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grand River Commerce Inc that is +30.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grand River Commerce Inc grew -3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +30.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grand River Commerce Inc (+30.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.97 %: that much free cash flow Grand River Commerce Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grand River Commerce Inc it is $3.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.30. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grand River Commerce Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GNRV trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.30, fair value $3.46, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNRV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.46). For Grand River Commerce Inc the two are $1.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grand River Commerce Inc worth?
The market values Grand River Commerce Inc at about $37.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.30; our models calculate a fair value of $3.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNRV?
Our models span a range for Grand River Commerce Inc: cautious scenario $2.58, base $3.46, optimistic $3.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNRV?
Grand River Commerce Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grand River Commerce Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNRV from its 52-week high?
Grand River Commerce Inc trades at $5.30, about 4% below its 52-week high of $5.55 and 45% above the low of $3.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grand River Commerce Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grand River Commerce Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.30, calculated fair value $3.46 (−35%), Quality Score 53/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNRV calculated?
We run Grand River Commerce Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grand River Commerce Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $5.30. Our model-based fair value is $3.46, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grand River Commerce Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Grand River Commerce Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The market capitalisation of Grand River Commerce Inc is $37.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grand River Commerce Inc is 2.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Earnings per share at Grand River Commerce Inc are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The net margin of Grand River Commerce Inc is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grand River Commerce Inc is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grand River Commerce Inc is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
The operating margin of Grand River Commerce Inc is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Revenue at Grand River Commerce Inc is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grand River Commerce Inc (GNRV)?
Earnings per share at Grand River Commerce Inc are growing +3.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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