Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ferroglobe PLC $0.46, price $4.26, upside -89.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.03 – $9.26 · fair‑value band $0.4300 – $0.5100 · the $4.26 price screens above the $0.4600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ferroglobe PLC produces and sells silicon metal, and silicon and manganese-based alloys. It provides silicone metal that are used in a range of applications, including construction-related products, electronics, personal care items, and health care, as well as by primary and secondary aluminum producers.
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Ferroglobe PLC produces and sells silicon metal, and silicon and manganese-based alloys. It provides silicone metal that are used in a range of applications, including construction-related products, electronics, personal care items, and health care, as well as by primary and secondary aluminum producers. The company also offers silicomanganese, which is used as a deoxidizing agent in the steel manufacturing process; and ferromanganese that is used as a deoxidizing, desulphurizing, and degassing agent in the removal of nitrogen and other harmful elements from steel. In addition, it offers ferrosilicon products that are used to produce stainless steel, carbon steel, and various other steel alloys, as well as to manufacture electrodes and aluminum; calcium silicon for deoxidation and desulfurization of liquid steel, cast iron pipes coating production, and welding process of powder metal and in pyrotechnics, as well as control the shape, size, and distribution of oxide and sulfide inclusions; and foundry products, such as nodularizers and inoculants for production of iron. Further, the company provides silica fume, a by-product of the electrometallurgical process of silicon metal and ferrosilicon. Additionally, it operates quartz mines in South Africa, Spain, the United States, and Canada; low-ash metallurgical coal mines in the United States; and hydroelectric power plant in France, as well as procures coal, manganese ore, quartz, petroleum and metallurgical coke, electrodes, and additive metals. It serves silicone chemical producers; aluminum and steel manufacturers; auto companies and their suppliers; ductile iron foundries; manufacturers of photovoltaic solar cells and computer chips; and concrete producers. The company was formerly known as VeloNewco Limited and changed its name to Ferroglobe PLC in December 2015. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) currently trades at $4.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4600, 89.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.48 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $4.26 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.4700, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4300 (bear) to $0.5100 (bull), the price of $4.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ferroglobe PLC reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$171M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $802M · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5900 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −12.8% · Return on equity −16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin −2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, GSM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4300Fair Value $0.4600Bull $0.5100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−16.1% (2020) → −14.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 433 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Above median
Fair Value upside−88.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−8.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.11× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.56× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA74.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG9.51× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 62
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ferroglobe PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSM
Frequently asked questions
Is Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4600 versus a price of $4.26, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GSM?
Our model-based fair value for Ferroglobe PLC is $0.4600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.26.
What is the quality score of GSM?
Ferroglobe PLC has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4300, optimistic scenario $0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ferroglobe PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4600, about −89% upside versus a price of $4.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4300, optimistic scenario $0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Ferroglobe PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ferroglobe PLC pay a dividend?
Ferroglobe PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ferroglobe PLC it is $0.4600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.26. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ferroglobe PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GSM trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.26, fair value $0.4600, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4600). For Ferroglobe PLC the two are $3.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ferroglobe PLC worth?
The market values Ferroglobe PLC at about $802M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.26; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSM?
Our models span a range for Ferroglobe PLC: cautious scenario $0.4300, base $0.4600, optimistic $0.5100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of GSM?
The PEG ratio of Ferroglobe PLC is 9.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ferroglobe PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −16.2%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GSM from its 52-week high?
Ferroglobe PLC trades at $4.26, about 23% below its 52-week high of $5.52 and 36% above the low of $3.14 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ferroglobe PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ferroglobe PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.26, calculated fair value $0.4600 (−89%), Quality Score 40/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSM calculated?
We run Ferroglobe PLC through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ferroglobe PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.26. Our model-based fair value is $0.4600, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ferroglobe PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ferroglobe PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The market capitalisation of Ferroglobe PLC is $802M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ferroglobe PLC is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Earnings per share at Ferroglobe PLC are $−0.5900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The dividend yield of Ferroglobe PLC is 1.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The net margin of Ferroglobe PLC is −12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ferroglobe PLC is −16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ferroglobe PLC is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
The operating margin of Ferroglobe PLC is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Revenue at Ferroglobe PLC is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)?
Earnings per share at Ferroglobe PLC are growing −52.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) generate?
The free cash flow of Ferroglobe PLC is −$19.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) carry?
The net debt of Ferroglobe PLC is $170M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026