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HSBC Holdings (HBC1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HSBC Holdings €13.52, price €16.99, upside -20.4%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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HH
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
HSBC Holdings
HBC1 · XETRAWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value €13.52 · Overvalued (−20.4%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +146.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!4.4% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.18 – €18.68 · fair‑value band €9.03 – €16.90 · the €16.99 price screens above the €13.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
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HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
HSBC Holdings (HBC1) currently trades at €16.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €13.52, 20.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €12.89 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €16.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.17, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.03 (bear) to €16.90 (bull), the price of €16.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HSBC Holdings reported revenue of $151B in FY2025 versus $73.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was $22.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €342B · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) €1.06 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 15.1% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −20%, HBC1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €9.03
Fair Value €13.52
Bull €16.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2344 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
€8.87
€10.74
€14.74
76
DDM Multi-Stage
€6.87
€12.28
€15.63
66
Gordon GGM
€6.87
€14.99
€25.23
65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
€6.87
€14.99
€25.23
65
DDM Multi-Stage
€6.87
€12.28
€15.63
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€11.51
€15.34
€19.18
63
P/B Multiple
€9.67
€12.89
€16.12
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€4.61
€6.17
€9.21
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€8.87
€10.74
€14.74
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
41
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.4% vs 5.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−10.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price and −12.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−50.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.5%
HBC1 screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Compare HSBC Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $330.83 | $188.11 | −43% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥8.28 | ¥10.93 | +32% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.98 | ¥13.69 | +25% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $55.47 | $42.37 | −24% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.97 | ¥12.94 | +86% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.62 | ¥9.86 | +49% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | $200.95 | $130.85 | −35% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $23.37 | $14.86 | −36% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $80.05 | $66.44 | −17% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $130.80 | $107.10 | −18% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is HSBC Holdings (HBC1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €13.52 versus a price of €16.99, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBC1?
Our model-based fair value for HSBC Holdings is €13.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.99.
What is the quality score of HBC1?
HSBC Holdings has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €13.52 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.03, optimistic scenario €16.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HSBC Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €13.52, about −20% upside versus a price of €16.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.03, optimistic scenario €16.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
HSBC Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does HSBC Holdings pay a dividend?
HSBC Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HSBC Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.4 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HBC1 use?
Our models discount HSBC Holdings at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HSBC Holdings that is +6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HSBC Holdings (HBC1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HSBC Holdings grew +29.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HSBC Holdings (HBC1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HSBC Holdings (+6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.49 %: that much free cash flow HSBC Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HSBC Holdings it is €13.52 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €16.99. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HSBC Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HBC1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €16.99, fair value €13.52, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBC1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€13.52). For HSBC Holdings the two are €3.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HSBC Holdings worth?
The market values HSBC Holdings at about €342B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €16.99; our models calculate a fair value of €13.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBC1?
Our models span a range for HSBC Holdings: cautious scenario €9.03, base €13.52, optimistic €16.90 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €16.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HBC1?
HSBC Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €13.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HBC1?
The PEG ratio of HSBC Holdings is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Balance-sheet figures for HSBC Holdings (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBC1 from its 52-week high?
HSBC Holdings trades at €16.99, about 9% below its 52-week high of €18.68 and 59% above the low of €10.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €13.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HSBC Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HSBC Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €16.99, calculated fair value €13.52 (−20%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBC1 calculated?
We run HSBC Holdings through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €13.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HSBC Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €16.99. Our model-based fair value is €13.52, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HSBC Holdings right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€9.03 to €16.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of HSBC Holdings (HBC1) come from?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings grew +10.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HSBC Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings is €342B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HSBC Holdings is 2.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings are €1.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The dividend yield of HSBC Holdings is 4.4% (payout 70.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The net margin of HSBC Holdings is 15.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HSBC Holdings is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HSBC Holdings is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
The operating margin of HSBC Holdings is 50.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Revenue at HSBC Holdings is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HSBC Holdings (HBC1)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings are growing +2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HSBC Holdings (HBC1) carry?
The net debt of HSBC Holdings is $257B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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