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HSBC Holdings (HBCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of HSBC Holdings MXN 1,039, price MXN 1,798, upside -42.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · MX · ISIN US4042804066

HH Broad data Sep 29, 2026

HSBC Holdings

HBCN · MX

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 1,039 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−42.2%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

1,798 MXN 394.57 MXN Fair Value 1,039 MXN Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 394.57 MXN – 1,798 MXN · fair‑value band 932.60 MXN – 1,253 MXN · the 1,798 MXN price screens above the 1,039 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.

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HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

HSBC Holdings (HBCN) currently trades at 1,798 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,039 MXN, 42.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 1,468 MXN per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 1,798 MXN price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 679.37 MXN, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 932.60 MXN (bear) to 1,253 MXN (bull), the price of 1,798 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

HSBC Holdings reported revenue of $66.2B in FY2025 versus $63.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $22.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 5.5T MXN (≈ $304B) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 5.71 · EPS (TTM) 105.94 MXN · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 33.7% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −42%, HBCN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 932.60 MXN Fair Value 1,039 MXN Bull 1,253 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (79.54 MXN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 974.60 MXN 1,112 MXN 1,388 MXN 76
Gordon GGM 589.37 MXN 679.37 MXN 791.67 MXN 69
DDM Multi-Stage 589.37 MXN 781.97 MXN 1,041 MXN 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 589.37 MXN 679.37 MXN 791.67 MXN 69
DDM Multi-Stage 589.37 MXN 781.97 MXN 1,041 MXN 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 1,150 MXN 1,533 MXN 1,916 MXN 63
P/B Multiple 1,101 MXN 1,468 MXN 1,835 MXN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 524.37 MXN 702.65 MXN 1,049 MXN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 974.60 MXN 1,112 MXN 1,388 MXN 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 29%

HBCN screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $330.83 $188.11 −43%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.28 ¥10.93 +32%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.98 ¥13.69 +25%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $55.47 $42.37 −24%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.97 ¥12.94 +86%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.62 ¥9.86 +49%
Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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HSBC Holdings · Fair Value
1,039 MXN −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HSBC Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBCN

Frequently asked questions

Is HSBC Holdings (HBCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,039 MXN versus a price of 1,798 MXN, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBCN?
Our model-based fair value for HSBC Holdings is 1,039 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,798 MXN.
What is the quality score of HBCN?
HSBC Holdings has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,039 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 932.60 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,253 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HSBC Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,039 MXN, about −42% upside versus a price of 1,798 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 932.60 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,253 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
HSBC Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 63.8B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does HSBC Holdings pay a dividend?
HSBC Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HSBC Holdings it is 1,039 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 1,798 MXN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HSBC Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, HBCN trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,798 MXN, fair value 1,039 MXN, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,798 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,039 MXN). For HSBC Holdings the two are 758.87 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HSBC Holdings worth?
The market values HSBC Holdings at about 5.5T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 1,798 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 1,039 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBCN?
Our models span a range for HSBC Holdings: cautious scenario 932.60 MXN, base 1,039 MXN, optimistic 1,253 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 1,798 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HBCN from its 52-week high?
HSBC Holdings trades at 1,798 MXN, at its 52-week high of 1,798 MXN and 56% above the low of 1,151 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,039 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HSBC Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HSBC Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 1,798 MXN, calculated fair value 1,039 MXN (−42%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HBCN calculated?
We run HSBC Holdings through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,039 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HSBC Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 1,798 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 1,039 MXN, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HSBC Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,253 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of HSBC Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings is 5.5T MXN (≈ $304B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of HSBC Holdings is 17.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HSBC Holdings is 5.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings are 105.94 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The dividend yield of HSBC Holdings is 0.0% (payout 0.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The net margin of HSBC Holdings is 33.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HSBC Holdings is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HSBC Holdings is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
The operating margin of HSBC Holdings is 50.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
Revenue at HSBC Holdings is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HSBC Holdings (HBCN)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings are growing +2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HSBC Holdings (HBCN) generate?
The free cash flow of HSBC Holdings is 25.1B MXN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HSBC Holdings (HBCN) carry?
The net debt of HSBC Holdings is 57.0B MXN (fiscal year 2019, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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