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Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hiscox Ltd $34.52, price $51.76, upside -33.3%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Hiscox Ltd
HCXLY · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $34.52 · Overvalued (−33.3%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!1.0% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Moderate moat 60/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.92 – $54.24 · fair‑value band $26.09 – $50.23 · the $51.76 price screens above the $34.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Hiscox Ltd, through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Hiscox Retail, Hiscox London Market, and Hiscox Re segments.
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Hiscox Ltd, through its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Hiscox Retail, Hiscox London Market, and Hiscox Re segments. The company offers commercial insurance, such as emerging professions, media and tech, and small business insurance; and personal lines, including high-value homes and fine art, as well as artwork, antiques, classic cars, jewelry, collectables, and other assets through brokers, partners, and direct-to-consumers. It also provides property insurance; marine, specialty, cyber, and energy insurance; casualty insurance; terrorism, kidnap, and ransom insurance; and other specialty insurance products. In addition, the company offers property and casualty reinsurance services, as well as investment services. Hiscox Ltd was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) currently trades at $51.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.52, 33.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.52 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $51.76 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.29, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.09 (bear) to $50.23 (bull), the price of $51.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hiscox Ltd reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was $606M in FY2025, compounding +33.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $8.9B · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $3.50 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −33%, HCXLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $26.09
Fair Value $34.52
Bull $50.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.27 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$24.49
$31.02
$45.64
75
Gordon GGM
$8.00
$15.94
$24.14
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$8.00
$13.29
$16.83
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$8.00
$15.94
$24.14
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$8.00
$13.29
$16.83
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$36.88
$49.17
$61.47
63
P/B Multiple
$25.89
$34.52
$43.15
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.33
$16.52
$24.65
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$24.49
$31.02
$45.64
75
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+38.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.37.4% vs 4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.9% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−1.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.5%
HCXLY screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with Chubb Limited →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (69 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Hiscox Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Hiscox (LSE:HSX) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift As Analysts Raise Price Targets
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb Limited CB | $331.37 | $235.99 | −29% |
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $209.47 | $160.75 | −23% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $356.51 | $279.78 | −22% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $224.41 | $290.52 | +29% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.98 | ¥9.02 | +13% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,219 | C$3,257 | +47% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$250.54 | C$167.88 | −33% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $161.92 | $143.72 | −11% |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB | $67.66 | $47.22 | −30% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$23.81 | A$13.42 | −44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.52 versus a price of $51.76, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCXLY?
Our model-based fair value for Hiscox Ltd is $34.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.76.
What is the quality score of HCXLY?
Hiscox Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.09, optimistic scenario $50.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hiscox Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.52, about −33% upside versus a price of $51.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $26.09, optimistic scenario $50.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Hiscox Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hiscox Ltd pay a dividend?
Hiscox Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hiscox Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +41.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCXLY use?
Our models discount Hiscox Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hiscox Ltd that is +41.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hiscox Ltd grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +41.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hiscox Ltd (+41.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.80 %: that much free cash flow Hiscox Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hiscox Ltd it is $34.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $51.76. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hiscox Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HCXLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.76, fair value $34.52, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCXLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.52). For Hiscox Ltd the two are $17.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hiscox Ltd worth?
The market values Hiscox Ltd at about $8.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $51.76; our models calculate a fair value of $34.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCXLY?
Our models span a range for Hiscox Ltd: cautious scenario $26.09, base $34.52, optimistic $50.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $51.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCXLY?
Hiscox Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hiscox Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.8%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCXLY from its 52-week high?
Hiscox Ltd trades at $51.76, about 5% below its 52-week high of $54.24 and 52% above the low of $34.11 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hiscox Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hiscox Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $51.76, calculated fair value $34.52 (−33%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCXLY calculated?
We run Hiscox Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hiscox Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $51.76. Our model-based fair value is $34.52, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hiscox Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($26.09 to $50.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hiscox Ltd grew +4.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +8.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hiscox Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The market capitalisation of Hiscox Ltd is $8.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hiscox Ltd is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Earnings per share at Hiscox Ltd are $3.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The dividend yield of Hiscox Ltd is 1.0% (payout 14.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The net margin of Hiscox Ltd is 11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hiscox Ltd is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hiscox Ltd is 15.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
The operating margin of Hiscox Ltd is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Revenue at Hiscox Ltd is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY)?
Earnings per share at Hiscox Ltd are growing +4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hiscox Ltd (HCXLY) hold?
Hiscox Ltd holds more cash than debt, $45.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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