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Helio S.A (HEL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · PL · Market cap 238M PLN

HS Helio S.A HEL · WAR
Price53.80 PLN
Fair Value61.12 PLN
Upside+13.6%
Quality47/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Moderate moat 45/100
Evidence: Medium Range 42.79 PLN – 79.29 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −5.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 14% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (42.79 PLN to 79.29 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from 42.79 PLN (bear) to 79.29 PLN (bull), base 61.12 PLN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

59.00 PLN 9.89 PLN Fair Value 61.12 PLN Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 9.89 PLN – 59.00 PLN · fair‑value band 42.79 PLN – 79.29 PLN · the 53.80 PLN price screens below the 61.12 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Helio S.A (HEL) currently trades at 53.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 61.12 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Helio S.A generated revenue of 525M PLN at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 35.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.0%. Net debt stands at 56.1M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 42.79 PLN (bear case) to 79.29 PLN (bull case); at 53.80 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 14%, HEL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder 33.40 PLN 38.71 PLN 46.97 PLN 72
Growth-Adj P/E 42.79 PLN 61.12 PLN 79.46 PLN 68
P/E Multiple 47.57 PLN 63.43 PLN 79.29 PLN 63
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 20.54 PLN 103.84 PLN 143.39 PLN 54
Lynch FV 28.18 PLN 40.26 PLN 52.34 PLN 50
PEG = 1.0 28.18 PLN 40.26 PLN 52.34 PLN 46
EPV 33.40 PLN 37.80 PLN 41.37 PLN 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 47.57 PLN 63.43 PLN 79.29 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 38.51 PLN 51.35 PLN 64.18 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 38.51 PLN 51.35 PLN 64.18 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 72.22 PLN 97.37 PLN 122.53 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 65.39 PLN 88.27 PLN 111.16 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 50.61 PLN 73.70 PLN 96.78 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 18.39 PLN 24.64 PLN 36.78 PLN 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 27.67 PLN 28.56 PLN 28.70 PLN 61
ROIC Compounder 33.40 PLN 38.71 PLN 46.97 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 42.79 PLN 61.12 PLN 79.46 PLN 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (63.43 PLN) versus Asset-Based (24.64 PLN). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 583M PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +51.3%
Net margin 4.3%
Return on equity 14.1%
Free cash flow −37.8M PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 10.5
More key figures
Operating margin 6.0%
EPS (TTM) 5.07 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) +20.4%
Net debt 56.1M PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Helio S.A. produces and markets dried fruits and nuts in Poland. The company offers nuts, dried and candied fruits, pits and grains, peanuts, masses and icings for cakes, and microwave popcorn. The company sells its products to retail chains, wholesalers, and grocery stores under the HELIO brand.

Full company description

Helio S.A. produces and markets dried fruits and nuts in Poland. The company offers nuts, dried and candied fruits, pits and grains, peanuts, masses and icings for cakes, and microwave popcorn. The company sells its products to retail chains, wholesalers, and grocery stores under the HELIO brand. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Zaborów, Poland. Helio S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Agora S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Helio S.A reported revenue of 445M PLN in FY2025 versus 273M PLN in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was 13.5M PLN in FY2025, compounding +1.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
445M PLN
Latest YoY
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.2%
Revenue +13.0%/yr
FY21 273M PLN
FY22 312M PLN
FY23 369M PLN
FY24 417M PLN
FY25 445M PLN
Net income +1.1%/yr
FY21 12.9M PLN
FY22 12.9M PLN
FY23 13.8M PLN
FY24 26.7M PLN
FY25 13.5M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +15.7 pp

of which total revenue +15.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp

EBIT margin +6.7 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Helio S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HEL

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +14% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth 51% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.12× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 51 · sector 28
FUTURE 100 · sector 20
PAST 56 · sector 27
HEALTH 94 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%
Nongshim Co 004370 348,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Helio S.A (HEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 61.12 PLN versus a price of 53.80 PLN, about +14% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HEL?
Our model-based fair value for Helio S.A is 61.12 PLN (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 53.80 PLN.
What is the quality score of HEL?
Helio S.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Helio S.A (HEL)?
Helio S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 525M PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HEL?
The net profit margin of Helio S.A is about 4.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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