Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hilton Food Group Plc stock £8.01, price £7.35, upside +9.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.21 – £10.20 · fair‑value band £4.70 – £12.64 · the £7.35 price screens below the £8.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Hilton Food Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the multi-protein food business.
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The company offers meat products; seafood products, such as smoked salmon, wet fish, shellfish, coated fish, and fish cakes; vegan and vegetarian food, including meat-free replacement burgers, meatballs, cutlets, poultry, kievs, steaks, rashers, and seafood and sticks; and straight-to-oven trays, ready meals, soups, sandwiches, and wraps.
It also provides supply chain services comprising warehouse automation, logistics, and other value-adding services. The company supplies its products for international food retailers.
It operates in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, the Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Central Europe, and APAC countries. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Huntingdon, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) currently trades at £7.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £8.01, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £10.12 per share, and 10 of the 17 models we run sit above the £7.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.86, and 7 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £4.70 (bear) to £12.64 (bull), the price of £7.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hilton Food Group Plc reported revenue of £4.2B in FY2025 versus £3.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was £47.9M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £660M Small · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) £0.4100 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 9%, HFG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£4.70Fair Value £8.01Bull£12.64
Price £7.35 · Upside +9.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0521 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 6.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 660 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+9.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilton Food Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HFG
Frequently asked questions
Is Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £8.01 versus a price of £7.35, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HFG?
Our model-based fair value for Hilton Food Group Plc is £8.01 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £7.35.
What is the quality score of HFG?
Hilton Food Group Plc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £8.01 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.70, optimistic scenario £12.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilton Food Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £8.01, about +9% upside versus a price of £7.35 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £4.70, optimistic scenario £12.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Hilton Food Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Hilton Food Group Plc pay a dividend?
Hilton Food Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hilton Food Group Plc pays a dividend of £0.35 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2007. The payout ratio is 135% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 85.4%). Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilton Food Group Plc it is £8.01 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of £7.35. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hilton Food Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, HFG trades below its calculated fair value: price £7.35, fair value £8.01, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£7.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£8.01). For Hilton Food Group Plc the two are £0.6650 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilton Food Group Plc worth?
The market values Hilton Food Group Plc at about £660M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is £7.35; our models calculate a fair value of £8.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HFG?
Our models span a range for Hilton Food Group Plc: cautious scenario £4.70, base £8.01, optimistic £12.64 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price £7.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HFG?
Hilton Food Group Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £8.01 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.2 (reported for FY2025: 8.4). Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilton Food Group Plc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HFG from its 52-week high?
Hilton Food Group Plc trades at £7.35, about 2% below its 52-week high of £7.49 and 69% above the low of £4.35 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £8.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilton Food Group Plc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilton Food Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price £7.35, calculated fair value £8.01 (+9%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HFG calculated?
We run Hilton Food Group Plc through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £8.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hilton Food Group Plc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was £7.35. Our model-based fair value is £8.01, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilton Food Group Plc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£4.70 to £12.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) come from?
Earnings per share at Hilton Food Group Plc grew +5.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.5 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hilton Food Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The market capitalisation of Hilton Food Group Plc is £660M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilton Food Group Plc is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Food Group Plc are £0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The dividend yield of Hilton Food Group Plc is 4.8% (payout 135%, on adjusted earnings, reported 85.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The net margin of Hilton Food Group Plc is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilton Food Group Plc is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilton Food Group Plc is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
The operating margin of Hilton Food Group Plc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Revenue at Hilton Food Group Plc is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Food Group Plc are growing −1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) generate?
The free cash flow of Hilton Food Group Plc is −£18.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hilton Food Group Plc (HFG) carry?
The net debt of Hilton Food Group Plc is £325M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026