HelloFresh SE (HFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €532M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €16.41 to €9.45 (−42.4%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −10.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€6.60 to €12.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.15 – €96.18 · fair‑value band €6.60 – €12.31 · the €3.15 price screens below the €9.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HelloFresh SE (HFG) currently trades at €3.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.45, implying the stock looks roughly 200.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HelloFresh SE generated revenue of €6.5B at a net margin of -0.4%. Revenue declined 13.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.7%. Net debt stands at €490M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.60 (bear case) to €12.31 (bull case); at €3.15, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 200%, HFG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€33.75) versus Asset-Based (€3.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when HFG reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HelloFresh SE, together with its subsidiaries, operates as meal kit provider in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company provides meal kits; add-on products including soups, desserts, bakery products, salads, and surcharge products; ready-to-eat meals; and other products.
Full company description
HelloFresh SE, together with its subsidiaries, operates as meal kit provider in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company provides meal kits; add-on products including soups, desserts, bakery products, salads, and surcharge products; ready-to-eat meals; and other products. It operates under the HelloFresh, Chefs Plate, Good Chop, Pets Table, EveryPlate, Factor, Green Chef, and YouFoodz brand names. HelloFresh SE was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HelloFresh SE reported revenue of €6.8B in FY2025 versus €6.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€92.6M in FY2025.
Watch HFG: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HelloFresh SE (HLFFF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Rebuild Shows Early Promise ...
- New Survey from HelloFresh and Scrub Daddy Reveals Americans’ Dirtiest Kitchen Secrets: 1 in 5 Have Given Up Trying to Identify What's Soaki
- HelloFresh Bond Sees Over 10% Available to Borrow as Short Interest Surges
- Locus Robotics Helps HelloFresh Expand Temperature-Controlled SKU Capacity 5X Across Growing Brand Portfolio
Peer Group
Restaurants · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
Compare HelloFresh SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is HelloFresh SE (HFG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HFG?
What is the quality score of HFG?
What is the revenue of HelloFresh SE (HFG)?
What is the net profit margin of HFG?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track HelloFresh SE and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.