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Hagerty, Inc (HGTY) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.3B

HI Hagerty, Inc logo Hagerty, Inc HGTY · US
Price$13.61
Fair Value$1.56
Upside-88.5%
Quality57/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: Medium Range $1.17 – $1.96 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +12.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$18.80 $7.57 Fair Value $1.56 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.57 – $18.80 · fair‑value band $1.17 – $1.96 · the $13.61 price screens above the $1.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Hagerty, Inc (HGTY) currently trades at $13.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 88.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hagerty, Inc generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $66.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.17 (bear case) to $1.96 (bull case); at $13.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -89%, HGTY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $0.9000 $1.24 $4.16 76
Gordon GGM $0.1400 $0.2800 $0.4300 70
P/E Multiple $1.38 $1.84 $2.30 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1400 $0.2800 $0.4300 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1400 $0.2400 $0.3000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.38 $1.84 $2.30 63
P/B Multiple $0.9300 $1.24 $1.55 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4400 $0.5900 $0.8900 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.9000 $1.24 $4.16 76

Widest divergence: Multiples ($1.24) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $1.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.0%
Net margin 2.0%
Return on equity 15.0%
Free cash flow $194M FY2025
P/E ratio 42.5
More key figures
Operating margin 12.7%
EPS (TTM) $0.2400
EPS growth (YoY) +410%
Net cash $66.4M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 78
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 36
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hagerty, Inc. provides insurance services for collector cars and enthusiast vehicles in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Insurance and Marketplace segments. The company operates as a managing general agent that underwrites, sells, and services collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurance policies.

Full company description

Hagerty, Inc. provides insurance services for collector cars and enthusiast vehicles in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Insurance and Marketplace segments. The company operates as a managing general agent that underwrites, sells, and services collector car and enthusiast vehicle insurance policies. It also provides Hagerty Drivers Club memberships, which are bundled with insurance policies and give subscribers access to an array of products and services, such as emergency roadside assistance, the Hagerty Drivers Club magazine, special access to automotive enthusiast events, a proprietary vehicle valuation tool, and special vehicle-related discounts; and reinsurance services. In addition, the company offers marketplace services comprising live auctions, online sale platforms, and brokered private sales services where automotive collectors and enthusiasts can buy, sell, and finance collector cars. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Traverse City, Michigan. Hagerty, Inc. is a subsidiary of Hagerty Holding Corp.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hagerty, Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $577M in FY2021, a compound +26.1%/yr. Reported net income was $49.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.5B
Latest YoY
+22.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+20.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+23.9%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y)
+25.2%
Revenue +26.1%/yr
FY21 $577M
FY22 $829M
FY23 $1.0B
FY24 $1.2B
FY25 $1.5B
Net income
FY21 −$46.4M
FY22 $32.1M
FY23 $20.2M
FY24 $17.0M
FY25 $49.0M

HGTY screens 89% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hagerty, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGTY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth -5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 52.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 13.90× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 44
FUTURE 0 · sector 31
PAST 60 · sector 56
HEALTH 96 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $234.48 $252.50 +8%
Chubb Limited CB $337.44 $345.56 +2%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $368.98 $384.42 +4%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $251.61 $503.22 +100%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥7.06 ¥13.71 +94%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$294.02 C$247.44 -16%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,327 C$3,252 +40%
QBE Insurance Group QBE A$25.47 A$19.42 -24%
Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 648,000 KRW 658,771 KRW +2%
Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU 69.80 PLN 100.85 PLN +44%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hagerty, Inc (HGTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.56 versus a price of $13.61, about −89% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGTY?
Our model-based fair value for Hagerty, Inc is $1.56 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $13.61.
What is the quality score of HGTY?
Hagerty, Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hagerty, Inc (HGTY)?
Hagerty, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HGTY?
The net profit margin of Hagerty, Inc is about 2.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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