Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd $34.63, price $11.99, upside +188.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.11 – $54.24 · fair‑value band $22.82 – $47.66 · the $11.99 price screens below the $34.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Herbalife Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides health and wellness products in North America, Mexico, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the Asia Pacific.
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Herbalife Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides health and wellness products in North America, Mexico, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the Asia Pacific. It offers weight management products, including meal replacement, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss supplements, healthy snacks, and metabolism boosting teas; targeted nutrition products comprising functional beverages and dietary and nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, minerals and other natural ingredients; energy, sports, and fitness products; and facial skin care, body care, and hair care products. The company also provides literature, promotional, and other materials, such as start-up kits, sales tools, and educational materials. It sells its products through sales representatives, independent service providers, and company-operated retail stores and platforms. The company was formerly known as Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. and changed its name to Herbalife Ltd. in April 2023. Herbalife Ltd. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock analysis
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) currently trades at $11.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.63, implying the stock looks roughly 65.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $46.25 per share, and 19 of the 20 models we run sit above the $11.99 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $19.01, and 1 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.82 (bear) to $47.66 (bull), the price of $11.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $228M in FY2025, compounding −15.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $2.28 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.7% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) $5.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 189%, HLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.82Fair Value $34.63Bull $47.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
From 2014 to 2025, about 326% of the growth in earnings per share came from share buybacks, and equity is negative: the buybacks are partly paid with debt. That cannot be repeated indefinitely.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.4% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Herbalife Nutrition Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+189% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF4.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.61× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.63 versus a price of $11.99, about +189% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HLF?
Our model-based fair value for Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is $34.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.99.
What is the quality score of HLF?
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.82, optimistic scenario $47.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Herbalife Nutrition Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.63, about +189% upside versus a price of $11.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.82, optimistic scenario $47.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Herbalife Nutrition Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLF use?
Our models discount Herbalife Nutrition Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Herbalife Nutrition Ltd that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.36 %: that much free cash flow Herbalife Nutrition Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Herbalife Nutrition Ltd it is $34.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.99. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Herbalife Nutrition Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.99, fair value $34.63, a gap of about +189% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.63). For Herbalife Nutrition Ltd the two are $22.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Herbalife Nutrition Ltd worth?
The market values Herbalife Nutrition Ltd at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.99; our models calculate a fair value of $34.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLF?
Our models span a range for Herbalife Nutrition Ltd: cautious scenario $22.82, base $34.63, optimistic $47.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLF?
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HLF?
The PEG ratio of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is 0.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLF from its 52-week high?
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd trades at $11.99, about 40% below its 52-week high of $19.96 and 55% above the low of $7.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Herbalife Nutrition Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Herbalife Nutrition Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.99, calculated fair value $34.63 (+189%), Quality Score 59/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLF calculated?
We run Herbalife Nutrition Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Herbalife Nutrition Ltd currently trades 189 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.99. Our model-based fair value is $34.63, about +189% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Herbalife Nutrition Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($22.82 to $47.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −3.9 %, tax rate +3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The market capitalisation of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Earnings per share at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd are $2.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The net margin of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is 17.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
The operating margin of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Revenue at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF)?
Earnings per share at Herbalife Nutrition Ltd are growing +16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) carry?
The net debt of Herbalife Nutrition Ltd is $2.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026