H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of H Lundbeck A/S DKK 70.78, price DKK 41.70, upside +69.7%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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H. Lundbeck A/S engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and commercializing pharmaceuticals for the treatment of psychiatric and neurological disorders in Europe, United States, and internationally.
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H. Lundbeck A/S engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and commercializing pharmaceuticals for the treatment of psychiatric and neurological disorders in Europe, United States, and internationally. The company offers Abilify Maintena/ Abilify Asimtufii for schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder in adults; Brintellix/Trintellix to treat depressive disorders; Rexulti/Rxulti to treat major depressive disorder and schizophrenia; Vyepti for migraine prevention; and Cipralex/Lexapro for depression. It also provides Northera for symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension; Onfi for epilepsy; Sabril for refractory complex partial seizures and infantile spasms; Ebixa for dementia, Azilect for Parkinson's disease; Xenazine for chorea; Deanxit for depression; Cipramil for depression and anxiety; and Cisordinol for psychosis. In addition, the company develops Eptinezumab for migraine prevention; Eptinezumab, which is in phase 3 clinical trial for cluster headache; Lu AG09222, which is in phase 2 clinical trial for migraine prevention; Lu AG13909 that is in phase 1 clinical trial for neurohormonal dysfunctions; Brexpiprazole for post-traumatic stress disorder; Lu AF28996, which is in phase 1 clinical trial for Parkinson's disease; MAGLi program that is in phase 1 clinical trial for neurology; Bexicaserin, which is in phase 3 clinical trial for developmental and epileptic encephalopathies; Amlenetug that is in phase 3 clinical trial for synucleinopathies; and Lu AG22515, which is in clinical phase 1 clinical trial for neurology. Lundbeck A/S has a strategic research collaboration with Contera Pharma to develop oligonucleotide-based medicines for patients living with serious neurological conditions. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Valby, Denmark.
Stock analysis
H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) currently trades at kr 41.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 70.78, implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 69.28 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 41.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 13.28, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 45.02 (bear) to kr 88.47 (bull), the price of kr 41.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
H Lundbeck A/S reported revenue of 24.4B DKK in FY2025 versus 16.3B DKK in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B DKK in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 41.4B DKK (≈ $6.2B) · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.76 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 70%, HLUN-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 45.02Fair Value kr 70.78Bull kr 88.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.1% vs 10.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 599 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+69.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.66× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 70.78 versus a price of kr 41.70, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HLUN-A?
Our model-based fair value for H Lundbeck A/S is kr 70.78 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 41.70.
What is the quality score of HLUN-A?
H Lundbeck A/S has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 70.78 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 45.02, optimistic scenario kr 88.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the H Lundbeck A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 70.78, about +70% upside versus a price of kr 41.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 45.02, optimistic scenario kr 88.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
H Lundbeck A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.0B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does H Lundbeck A/S pay a dividend?
H Lundbeck A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, H Lundbeck A/S would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLUN-A use?
Our models discount H Lundbeck A/S at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For H Lundbeck A/S that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at H Lundbeck A/S grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into H Lundbeck A/S (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.50 %: that much free cash flow H Lundbeck A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For H Lundbeck A/S it is kr 70.78 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 41.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is H Lundbeck A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, HLUN-A trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 41.70, fair value kr 70.78, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLUN-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 41.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 70.78). For H Lundbeck A/S the two are kr 29.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is H Lundbeck A/S worth?
The market values H Lundbeck A/S at about 41.4B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 41.70; our models calculate a fair value of kr 70.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLUN-A?
Our models span a range for H Lundbeck A/S: cautious scenario kr 45.02, base kr 70.78, optimistic kr 88.47 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 41.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLUN-A?
H Lundbeck A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 70.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.5, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HLUN-A?
The PEG ratio of H Lundbeck A/S is 6.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for H Lundbeck A/S (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLUN-A from its 52-week high?
H Lundbeck A/S trades at kr 41.70, about 5% below its 52-week high of kr 43.95 and 32% above the low of kr 31.65 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 70.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to H Lundbeck A/S?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is H Lundbeck A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 41.70, calculated fair value kr 70.78 (+70%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLUN-A calculated?
We run H Lundbeck A/S through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 70.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. H Lundbeck A/S currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 41.70. Our model-based fair value is kr 70.78, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with H Lundbeck A/S right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 45.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 45.02 to kr 88.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of H Lundbeck A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The market capitalisation of H Lundbeck A/S is 41.4B DKK (≈ $6.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of H Lundbeck A/S is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Earnings per share at H Lundbeck A/S are kr 3.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The dividend yield of H Lundbeck A/S is 2.8% (payout 30.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The net margin of H Lundbeck A/S is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of H Lundbeck A/S is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of H Lundbeck A/S is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
The operating margin of H Lundbeck A/S is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Revenue at H Lundbeck A/S is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A)?
Earnings per share at H Lundbeck A/S are growing +22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does H Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A) carry?
The net debt of H Lundbeck A/S is 8.6B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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