Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company $204, price $255, upside -20.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $129.15 – $269.08 · fair‑value band $199.28 – $271.95 · the $255.00 price screens above the $203.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hamlin Bank and Trust Company provides various financial and trust services in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The company accepts checking, savings, individual retirement accounts, and certificates of deposit.
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Hamlin Bank and Trust Company provides various financial and trust services in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The company accepts checking, savings, individual retirement accounts, and certificates of deposit. Its loan products include mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal, auto, home equity, boat, camper, and recreational vehicle loans; and commercial lines of credit, property and equipment loans, land development and acquisition loans, construction loans, and commercial mortgages. The company also offers debit cards; estate settlement, as well as personal trusts, investment management, and custodial services; and safe deposit boxes, night depository, cashier's checks, travelers checks, and telephone banking services. Hamlin Bank and Trust Company was founded in 1863 and is based in Smethport, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) currently trades at $255.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $203.61, implying the stock looks roughly 25.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $250.11 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $255.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $132.86, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $199.28 (bear) to $271.95 (bull), the price of $255.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company reported revenue of $27.1M in FY2025 versus $25.0M in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $6.9M in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $91.2M · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 3.37 · EPS (TTM) $19.22 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Free cash flow $3.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −20%, HMLN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $199.28Fair Value $203.61Bull $271.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.11 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 31%
2025 sits 84% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price.
Compare Hamlin Bank and Trust Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)25% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hamlin Bank and Trust Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $203.61 versus a price of $255.00, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMLN?
Our model-based fair value for Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is $203.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $255.00.
What is the quality score of HMLN?
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $203.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $199.28, optimistic scenario $271.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hamlin Bank and Trust Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $203.61, about −20% upside versus a price of $255.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $199.28, optimistic scenario $271.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Hamlin Bank and Trust Company pay a dividend?
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hamlin Bank and Trust Company would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMLN use?
Our models discount Hamlin Bank and Trust Company at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hamlin Bank and Trust Company that is +14.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hamlin Bank and Trust Company grew +21.0 % a year. The price currently implies +14.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (+14.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.11 %: that much free cash flow Hamlin Bank and Trust Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hamlin Bank and Trust Company it is $203.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $255.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hamlin Bank and Trust Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMLN trades above its calculated fair value: price $255.00, fair value $203.61, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($255.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($203.61). For Hamlin Bank and Trust Company the two are $51.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hamlin Bank and Trust Company worth?
The market values Hamlin Bank and Trust Company at about $91.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $255.00; our models calculate a fair value of $203.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMLN?
Our models span a range for Hamlin Bank and Trust Company: cautious scenario $199.28, base $203.61, optimistic $271.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $255.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMLN?
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $203.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of HMLN?
The PEG ratio of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is 2.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How far is HMLN from its 52-week high?
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company trades at $255.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of $269.08 and 50% above the low of $170.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $203.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hamlin Bank and Trust Company?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hamlin Bank and Trust Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $255.00, calculated fair value $203.61 (−20%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMLN calculated?
We run Hamlin Bank and Trust Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $203.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hamlin Bank and Trust Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $255.00. Our model-based fair value is $203.61, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hamlin Bank and Trust Company right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The market capitalisation of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is $91.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is 3.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
Earnings per share at Hamlin Bank and Trust Company are $19.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The dividend yield of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is 4.8% (payout 63.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
The net margin of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is 25.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hamlin Bank and Trust Company is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net cash does Hamlin Bank and Trust Company (HMLN) hold?
Hamlin Bank and Trust Company holds more cash than debt, $23.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026