Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. stock $10.84, price $13.86, that is 21.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range $7.54 – $14.59 · fair‑value band $10.10 – $16.39 · the $13.86 price screens above the $10.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 14, 2026.
Follow Hirogin Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hirogin Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for The Hiroshima Bank, Ltd. that provides various financial services. It operates in two segments, Banking Business segment and Leasing Business segment.
Show moreShow less
The Banking Business segment offers deposit services, lending services, securities investment services, and foreign exchange services. The Leasing Business segment includes leasing services.
It is also involved in financial instruments business, receivables management and collection business, and IT-related businesses. The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) currently trades at $13.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.84, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.13 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $13.86 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.77, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.10 (bear) to $16.39 (bull), the price of $13.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of ¥180B in FY2026 versus ¥129B in FY2022, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥43.7B in FY2026, compounding +17.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B Mid · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 3.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 24.3% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −22%, HROGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.10Fair Value $10.84Bull$16.39
Price $13.86 · Downside -21.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
2026 sits 61% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 999 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−21.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)34.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)41.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.6× · Pricier than median
P/B0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.56× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)52· sector 52
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hirogin Holdings, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HROGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.84 versus a price of $13.86, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HROGF?
Our model-based fair value for Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is $10.84 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.86.
What is the quality score of HROGF?
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.84 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.10, optimistic scenario $16.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hirogin Holdings, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.84, about 22% lower versus a price of $13.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.10, optimistic scenario $16.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥208B (latest available figure, as of Nov 14, 2026).
Does Hirogin Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 14, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.738 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 31, 2027. The payout ratio is 35.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hirogin Holdings, Inc. it is $10.84 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of $13.86. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Hirogin Holdings, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, HROGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.86, fair value $10.84, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HROGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.84). For Hirogin Holdings, Inc. the two are $3.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hirogin Holdings, Inc. worth?
The market values Hirogin Holdings, Inc. at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is $13.86; our models calculate a fair value of $10.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HROGF?
Our models span a range for Hirogin Holdings, Inc.: cautious scenario $10.10, base $10.84, optimistic $16.39 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price $13.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HROGF?
Hirogin Holdings, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Nov 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity 8.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Hirogin Holdings, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hirogin Holdings, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price $13.86, calculated fair value $10.84 (−22%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HROGF calculated?
We run Hirogin Holdings, Inc. through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.84 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Hirogin Holdings, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was $13.86. Our model-based fair value is $10.84, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hirogin Holdings, Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Hirogin Holdings, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The market capitalisation of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 3.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Earnings per share at Hirogin Holdings, Inc. are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The dividend yield of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 5.3% (payout 148%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The net margin of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 24.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
The operating margin of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Revenue at Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is growing 41.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF)?
Earnings per share at Hirogin Holdings, Inc. are growing 22.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is −¥355B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hirogin Holdings, Inc. (HROGF) carry?
The net debt of Hirogin Holdings, Inc. is ¥134B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hirogin Holdings, Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts Hirogin Holdings, Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 14, 2026