Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $704M
Heritage Insurance Holdings
HRTG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 26, 2026, revised from $48.66 to $55.64 (+14.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +20.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 70% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($41.73). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.32 – $35.21 · fair‑value band $41.73 – $69.55 · the $32.74 price screens below the $55.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) currently trades at $32.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.64, implying the stock looks roughly 70.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heritage Insurance Holdings generated revenue of $848M at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $459M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $41.73 (bear case) to $69.55 (bull case); at $32.74, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 70%, HRTG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($83.99) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products.
Full company description
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. It offers personal residential insurance in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia; and commercial residential property insurance in Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, and New York. The company also provides homeowners insurance, condo insurance, dwelling fire, equipment coverage, and artisan contractor program. It offers insurance products through a network of independent agents. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heritage Insurance Holdings reported revenue of $847M in FY2025 versus $632M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $196M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Truist is Bullish on Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG)
- Notable Thursday Option Activity: HCA, HRTG, ZM
- Heritage Insurance Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Heritage outlines 62.7% new business growth as it anticipates full-year written premiums turning positive
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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