Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.0B
Hercules Capital, Inc.
HTGC · US
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Share price +11.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, trading 12% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($13.33 to $25.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.38 – $18.50 · fair‑value band $13.33 – $25.08 · the $17.59 price screens below the $20.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) currently trades at $17.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.06, implying the stock looks roughly 14.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hercules Capital, Inc. generated revenue of $555M at a net margin of 59.9%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.33 (bear case) to $25.08 (bull case); at $17.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 14%, HTGC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($37.65) versus Asset-Based ($7.93). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. The firm specializing in providing private equity, venture debt, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from mid venture to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity companies that require …
Full company description
Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. The firm specializing in providing private equity, venture debt, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from mid venture to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stage companies. The firm provides growth capital financing solutions for capital extension; management buy-out and corporate spin-out financing solutions; company, asset specific, or intellectual property acquisition financing; convertible, subordinated and/or mezzanine loans; domestic and international corporate expansion; vendor financing; revenue acceleration by sales and marketing development, and manufacturing expansion. It provides asset-based financing with a focus on cash flow; accounts receivable facilities; equipment loans or leases; equipment acquisition; facilities build-out and/or expansion; working capital revolving lines of credit; inventory. The firm also provides bridge financing to IPO or mergers and acquisitions or technology acquisition; dividend recapitalizations and other sources of investor liquidity; cash flow financing to protect against share price volatility; competitor acquisition; pre-IPO financing for extra cash on the balance sheet; public company financing to continue asset growth and production capacity; short-term bridge financing; and strategic and intellectual property acquisition financings. It also focuses on customized financing solutions, emerging growth, mid venture, and late venture financing. The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The firm generally seeks to invest in companies that have been operating for at least six to 12 months prior to the date of their investment. It prefers to invest in technology, SaaS Finance, energy technology, sustainable
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hercules Capital, Inc. reported revenue of $547M in FY2025 versus $310M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Watch HTGC: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hercules Capital Receives a BBB+ Affirmed Investment Grade Corporate and Credit Rating from Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Inc.
- Can Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stay Reasonable After Record Commitments?
- Will Record Q2 Results, Higher Payouts and New Notes Offering Change Hercules Capital's (HTGC) Narrative
Peer Group
Asset Management · 721 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 95/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc BX | $146.41 | $52.88 | -64% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 417.90 | kr 835.80 | +100% |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | C$58.60 | C$7.74 | -87% |
| KKR & Co KKR | $110.90 | $19.97 | -82% |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $138.61 | $101.04 | -27% |
| State Street Corporation STT | $191.74 | $138.33 | -28% |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $561.63 | $515.24 | -8% |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $143.10 | $30.88 | -78% |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $191.33 | $122.02 | -36% |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $181.18 | $142.42 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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