Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Hercules Capital, Inc. $23.60, price $16.51, upside +42.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Hercules Capital, Inc.
HTGC · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.24 – $18.14 · fair‑value band $17.70 – $29.50 · the $16.51 price screens below the $23.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
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Company profile
Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company.
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Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. The firm specializing in providing private equity, venture debt, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from mid venture to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stage companies. The firm provides growth capital financing solutions for capital extension; management buy-out and corporate spin-out financing solutions; company, asset specific, or intellectual property acquisition financing; convertible, subordinated and/or mezzanine loans; domestic and international corporate expansion; vendor financing; revenue acceleration by sales and marketing development, and manufacturing expansion. It provides asset-based financing with a focus on cash flow; accounts receivable facilities; equipment loans or leases; equipment acquisition; facilities build-out and/or expansion; working capital revolving lines of credit; inventory. The firm also provides bridge financing to IPO or mergers and acquisitions or technology acquisition; dividend recapitalizations and other sources of investor liquidity; cash flow financing to protect against share price volatility; competitor acquisition; pre-IPO financing for extra cash on the balance sheet; public company financing to continue asset growth and production capacity; short-term bridge financing; and strategic and intellectual property acquisition financings. It also focuses on customized financing solutions, emerging growth, mid venture, and late venture financing. The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The firm generally seeks to invest in companies that have been operating for at least six to 12 months prior to the date of their investment. It prefers to invest in technology, SaaS Finance, energy technology, sustainable
Stock analysis
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) currently trades at $16.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.60, implying the stock looks roughly 30.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $50.25 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the $16.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.93, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.70 (bear) to $29.50 (bull), the price of $16.51 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hercules Capital, Inc. reported revenue of $547M in FY2025 versus $310M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 5.08 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 62.1% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 43%, HTGC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 9 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Revenue & earnings trend
Watch HTGC, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
- Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why
- Hercules Capital (HTGC) Stock May Still Be A Bargain On Equity Returns
- 2 Reasons HTGC is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Is Hercules Capital (HTGC) Undervalued As Its Board Adds A New Audit Director?
Compare Hercules Capital, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF | $158.21 | $316.42 | +100% | vs HTGC |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.80 | €139.37 | +100% | vs HTGC |
| Apollo Global Management, Inc APO | $115.95 | $197.23 | +70% | vs HTGC |
| Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP | $490.56 | $595.40 | +21% | vs HTGC |
| Ares Management Corporation ARES | $122.01 | $103.68 | −15% | vs HTGC |
| State Street Corporation STT | $175.96 | $139.37 | −21% | vs HTGC |
| Northern Trust Corporation NTRS | $175.73 | $123.42 | −30% | vs HTGC |
| Blackstone Inc BX | $111.65 | $52.29 | −53% | vs HTGC |
| Brookfield Corporation BN | $36.87 | $13.45 | −64% | vs HTGC |
| KKR & Co KKR | $90.29 | $29.26 | −68% | vs HTGC |
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Frequently asked questions
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Key figures of Hercules Capital, Inc.
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