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Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Hercules Capital, Inc. $23.60, price $16.51, upside +42.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US4270965084

HC Hercules Capital, Inc. logo Broad data Oct 6, 2026

Hercules Capital, Inc.

HTGC · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

Fair value $23.60 · Undervalued (+42.9%)
Highly profitable · 67.7% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 75/100
Broad data
Quality 43/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.9 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
9.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Insider activity 40/100
Negative free cash flow

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.14 $7.24 Fair Value $23.60 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.24 – $18.14 · fair‑value band $17.70 – $29.50 · the $16.51 price screens below the $23.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company.

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Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. The firm specializing in providing private equity, venture debt, and growth capital to privately held venture capital-backed companies at all stages of development from mid venture to expansion stage including select publicly listed companies and select special opportunity companies that require additional capital to fund acquisitions, recapitalizations and refinancing and established-stage companies. The firm provides growth capital financing solutions for capital extension; management buy-out and corporate spin-out financing solutions; company, asset specific, or intellectual property acquisition financing; convertible, subordinated and/or mezzanine loans; domestic and international corporate expansion; vendor financing; revenue acceleration by sales and marketing development, and manufacturing expansion. It provides asset-based financing with a focus on cash flow; accounts receivable facilities; equipment loans or leases; equipment acquisition; facilities build-out and/or expansion; working capital revolving lines of credit; inventory. The firm also provides bridge financing to IPO or mergers and acquisitions or technology acquisition; dividend recapitalizations and other sources of investor liquidity; cash flow financing to protect against share price volatility; competitor acquisition; pre-IPO financing for extra cash on the balance sheet; public company financing to continue asset growth and production capacity; short-term bridge financing; and strategic and intellectual property acquisition financings. It also focuses on customized financing solutions, emerging growth, mid venture, and late venture financing. The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants and, to a lesser extent, in senior debt and equity investments. The firm generally seeks to invest in companies that have been operating for at least six to 12 months prior to the date of their investment. It prefers to invest in technology, SaaS Finance, energy technology, sustainable

Stock analysis

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) currently trades at $16.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.60, implying the stock looks roughly 30.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $50.25 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the $16.51 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.93, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $17.70 (bear) to $29.50 (bull), the price of $16.51 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hercules Capital, Inc. reported revenue of $547M in FY2025 versus $310M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $340M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $3.3B · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 5.08 · EPS (TTM) $2.02 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 62.1% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 43%, HTGC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $17.70 Fair Value $23.60 Bull $29.50
Price $16.51 · Upside +42.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3256 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $11.76 $14.43 $19.39 76
Owner Earnings $20.36 $50.25 $106.97 70
Gordon GGM $15.30 $30.48 $46.16 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $20.36 $50.25 $106.97 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.34 $76.11 $106.21 63
Lynch FV $21.84 $31.20 $40.56 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $15.30 $30.48 $46.16 67
DDM Multi-Stage $15.30 $26.34 $32.17 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $17.70 $23.60 $29.50 63
P/B Multiple $12.43 $16.58 $20.72 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.92 $7.93 $11.84 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.76 $14.43 $19.39 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 82
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 28
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.4% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.64% → 67%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Hercules Capital, Inc. with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 655 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +42.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 67.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 83.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.71× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.49× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.82× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.52× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)91 · sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)43 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)69 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)65 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 82

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $158.21 $316.42 +100% vs HTGC
Exor N.V EXO €69.80 €139.37 +100% vs HTGC
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $115.95 $197.23 +70% vs HTGC
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $490.56 $595.40 +21% vs HTGC
Ares Management Corporation ARES $122.01 $103.68 −15% vs HTGC
State Street Corporation STT $175.96 $139.37 −21% vs HTGC
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $175.73 $123.42 −30% vs HTGC
Blackstone Inc BX $111.65 $52.29 −53% vs HTGC
Brookfield Corporation BN $36.87 $13.45 −64% vs HTGC
KKR & Co KKR $90.29 $29.26 −68% vs HTGC

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hercules Capital, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HTGC

Frequently asked questions

Is Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.60 versus a price of $16.51, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTGC?
Our model-based fair value for Hercules Capital, Inc. is $23.60 (as of Oct 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.51.
What is the quality score of HTGC?
Hercules Capital, Inc. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.60 (as of Oct 6, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.70, optimistic scenario $29.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hercules Capital, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.60, about +43% upside versus a price of $16.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.70, optimistic scenario $29.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Hercules Capital, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $566M (latest available figure, as of Oct 6, 2026).
Does Hercules Capital, Inc. pay a dividend?
Hercules Capital, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.69% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hercules Capital, Inc. it is $23.60 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026), against a price of $16.51. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hercules Capital, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 6, 2026, HTGC trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.51, fair value $23.60, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.60). For Hercules Capital, Inc. the two are $7.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hercules Capital, Inc. worth?
The market values Hercules Capital, Inc. at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 6, 2026). Per share that is $16.51; our models calculate a fair value of $23.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTGC?
Our models span a range for Hercules Capital, Inc.: cautious scenario $17.70, base $23.60, optimistic $29.50 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026, price $16.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTGC?
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Oct 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.60 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.6 (reported for FY2025: 9.5). Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.5, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HTGC?
The PEG ratio of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hercules Capital, Inc. (as of Oct 6, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTGC from its 52-week high?
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at $16.51, about 7% below its 52-week high of $17.76 and 25% above the low of $13.16 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hercules Capital, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hercules Capital, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 6, 2026: price $16.51, calculated fair value $23.60 (+43%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTGC calculated?
We run Hercules Capital, Inc. through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Hercules Capital, Inc. currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was $16.51. Our model-based fair value is $23.60, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hercules Capital, Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Hercules Capital, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The market capitalisation of Hercules Capital, Inc. is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 5.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Earnings per share at Hercules Capital, Inc. are $2.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The dividend yield of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 9.7% (payout 72.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 79.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The net margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 62.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
The operating margin of Hercules Capital, Inc. is 83.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Revenue at Hercules Capital, Inc. is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)?
Earnings per share at Hercules Capital, Inc. are growing +54.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) generate?
The free cash flow of Hercules Capital, Inc. is −$426M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) carry?
The net debt of Hercules Capital, Inc. is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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