Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd (HUMDF) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $339M
Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd
HUMDF · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $1.37 to $0.4499 (−67.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 43% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.3377). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.3377 to $1.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1500 – $0.7000 · fair‑value band $0.3377 – $1.24 · the $0.3144 price screens below the $0.4499 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd (HUMDF) currently trades at $0.3144, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4499, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $493M. Revenue grew 79.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 254.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $791M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3377 (bear case) to $1.24 (bull case); at $0.3144, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 43%, HUMDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2.59) versus Asset-Based ($0.0351). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd. engages in the development and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of diabetes in China. The company develops HuaTangNing (Dorzagliatin or HMS5552), an oral drug for the treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D); and Dorzagliatin in combination with Metformin, Sitagliptin, and Empagliflozin for treatment of T2D and DKD.
Full company description
Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd. engages in the development and commercialization of drugs for the treatment of diabetes in China. The company develops HuaTangNing (Dorzagliatin or HMS5552), an oral drug for the treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D); and Dorzagliatin in combination with Metformin, Sitagliptin, and Empagliflozin for treatment of T2D and DKD. It also provides Dorzagliatin in combination with GLP1RA and small molecule GLP-1 for T2D and obesity; combination with insulin to treat insulin sparing in T2D; second generation glucokinase (GK) inhibitor and GK NAM for metabolic disease; mGLUR5 negative allosteric modulator (NAM) for PD-LID and drug addiction; and Dorzagliatin for the treatment of T2D-Drug Naïve, T2D-Metformin Tolerated, RWE study for Diabetes Remission, MODY-2, Diabetes prevention IGT2NGT, Frailty, Early AD, and CFRD. Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd reported revenue of $480M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 624 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.76 | ¥25.94 | -52% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,944 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹8,500 | ₹1,932 | -77% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,915 | ₹1,163 | -76% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,440 TWD | 233.93 TWD | -84% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,463 | ₹1,001 | -32% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,167 | ₹703.32 | -40% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,281 | ₹2,477 | +9% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,433 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,200 | ₹874.79 | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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