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Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hyliion Holdings Corp. $0.49, price $4.53, upside -89.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US4491091074

HH Hyliion Holdings Corp. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Hyliion Holdings Corp.

HYLN · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.4900 · Strongly overvalued (−89.2%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +18.2 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.40 $0.5410 Fair Value $0.4900 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5410 – $11.40 · fair‑value band $0.3200 – $0.6100 · the $4.53 price screens above the $0.4900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Hyliion Holdings Corp. designs and develops power generators for stationary and mobile applications.

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Hyliion Holdings Corp. designs and develops power generators for stationary and mobile applications. Its primary product includes the KARNO Power Module, a fuel-agnostic power generating solution, which enables distributed power generation using conventional fuels, such as natural gas, propane or diesel; waste fuels, such as landfill and wellhead gas; zero carbon fuels, such as renewable hydrogen and ammonia. Hyliion Holdings Corp. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas.

Stock analysis

Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) currently trades at $4.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4900, 89.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.3200 (bear) to $0.6100 (bull), the price of $4.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Hyliion Holdings Corp. reported revenue of $3.5M in FY2025 versus $200K in FY2021, a compound +104.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$57.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.4B · EPS (TTM) $−0.3000 · Return on equity −25.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.1% · Operating margin −482% · Revenue (TTM) $5.8M · Revenue growth (YoY) +479% · Free cash flow −$70.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 187% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −89%, HYLN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3200 Fair Value $0.4900 Bull $0.6100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.5400 $0.7200 $1.08 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.5400 $0.7200 $1.08 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+130.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−48,048.5% (2021) → −1,872.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HYLN screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Compare Hyliion Holdings Corp. with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 666 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −17.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 479.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.52× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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AutoZone, Inc AZO $2,819 $2,468 −12%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 383,500 KRW 638,183 KRW +66%
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥52.47 ¥78.11 +49%
Knorr-Bremse AG KBX €99.20 €72.88 −27%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹165.71 ₹96.97 −41%
Genuine Parts Company GPC $126.95 $57.98 −54%
Magna International Inc MGA $64.46 $69.37 +8%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,250 ₹25,213 −48%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥46.44 ¥28.28 −39%

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Hyliion Holdings Corp. · Fair Value
$0.4900 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hyliion Holdings Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HYLN

Frequently asked questions

Is Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4900 versus a price of $4.53, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HYLN?
Our model-based fair value for Hyliion Holdings Corp. is $0.4900 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.53.
What is the quality score of HYLN?
Hyliion Holdings Corp. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4900 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.6100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hyliion Holdings Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4900, about −89% upside versus a price of $4.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.6100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Hyliion Holdings Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hyliion Holdings Corp. it is $0.4900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.53. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hyliion Holdings Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HYLN trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.53, fair value $0.4900, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HYLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4900). For Hyliion Holdings Corp. the two are $4.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hyliion Holdings Corp. worth?
The market values Hyliion Holdings Corp. at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.53; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HYLN?
Our models span a range for Hyliion Holdings Corp.: cautious scenario $0.3200, base $0.4900, optimistic $0.6100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hyliion Holdings Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −25.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HYLN from its 52-week high?
Hyliion Holdings Corp. trades at $4.53, about 44% below its 52-week high of $8.10 and 187% above the low of $1.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hyliion Holdings Corp.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hyliion Holdings Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.53, calculated fair value $0.4900 (−89%), Quality Score 43/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HYLN calculated?
We run Hyliion Holdings Corp. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hyliion Holdings Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.53. Our model-based fair value is $0.4900, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hyliion Holdings Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3200 to $0.6100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Hyliion Holdings Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
The market capitalisation of Hyliion Holdings Corp. is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Earnings per share at Hyliion Holdings Corp. are $−0.3000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hyliion Holdings Corp. is −25.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hyliion Holdings Corp. is −30.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
The operating margin of Hyliion Holdings Corp. is −482% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN)?
Revenue at Hyliion Holdings Corp. is growing +479% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) generate?
The free cash flow of Hyliion Holdings Corp. is −$70.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hyliion Holdings Corp. (HYLN) hold?
Hyliion Holdings Corp. holds more cash than debt, $18.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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