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Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Insurance Australia Group $3.41, price $5.37, upside -36.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Insurance Australia Group
IAUGF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $3.41 · Strongly overvalued (−36.5%)
✓Quality 63/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 48/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7439 – $6.39 · fair‑value band $2.56 – $4.27 · the $5.37 price screens above the $3.41 fair value. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Insurance Australia Group Limited underwrites general insurance products and provides investment management services in Australia and New Zealand.
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Insurance Australia Group Limited underwrites general insurance products and provides investment management services in Australia and New Zealand. The company's short-tail insurance products include motor vehicle; home and contents; lifestyle and leisure, including boat, veteran and classic car, and caravan; business packages; farm; commercial motor; commercial property; fleet motor; construction and engineering; rural; marine; and niche insurance, such as pleasure craft, boat, and caravan. It also provides long-tail insurance products, including professional indemnity; compulsory third party, including motor injury liability; workers' compensation; directors' and officers' liability; public and products liability; and commercial liability insurance. It sells its products through branches and agencies, call centers, online, insurance brokers, authorized representatives, motor dealerships, and financial institutions under the NRMA Insurance, CGU, ROLLiN, WFI, Swann Insurance, NZI, State, AMI, and Lumley Insurance brand names. The company was formerly known as NRMA Group Limited and changed its name to Insurance Australia Group Limited in 2002. Insurance Australia Group Limited was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) currently trades at $5.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.41, 36.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $3.61 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $5.37 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.46, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.56 (bear) to $4.27 (bull), the price of $5.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Insurance Australia Group reported revenue of A$14.8B in FY2025 versus A$9.2B in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.4B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $12.7B · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 1.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.3200 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −37%, IAUGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.56
Fair Value $3.41
Bull $4.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$2.54
$3.15
$4.65
75
Gordon GGM
$2.36
$4.64
$7.77
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.36
$3.61
$4.95
66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.36
$4.64
$7.77
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.36
$3.61
$4.95
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$3.94
$5.26
$6.57
63
P/B Multiple
$2.29
$3.05
$3.82
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.09
$1.46
$2.18
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.54
$3.15
$4.65
75
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
30
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
’14
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’21
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+39.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.9% vs 6.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 16%
2025 sits 97% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−10.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and −13.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−12.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−12.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)−11.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)−9.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−7.3%
IAUGF screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Chubb Limited →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb Limited CB | $331.37 | $235.99 | −29% |
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $209.47 | $160.75 | −23% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $356.51 | $279.78 | −22% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $224.41 | $290.52 | +29% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.98 | ¥9.02 | +13% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,219 | C$3,257 | +47% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$250.54 | C$167.88 | −33% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $161.92 | $143.72 | −11% |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB | $67.66 | $47.22 | −30% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$23.81 | A$13.42 | −44% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.41 versus a price of $5.37, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IAUGF?
Our model-based fair value for Insurance Australia Group is $3.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.37.
What is the quality score of IAUGF?
Insurance Australia Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.56, optimistic scenario $4.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Insurance Australia Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.41, about −37% upside versus a price of $5.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.56, optimistic scenario $4.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Insurance Australia Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$18.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Insurance Australia Group pay a dividend?
Insurance Australia Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Insurance Australia Group would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IAUGF use?
Our models discount Insurance Australia Group at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Insurance Australia Group that is +4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Insurance Australia Group grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Insurance Australia Group (+4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.41 %: that much free cash flow Insurance Australia Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Insurance Australia Group it is $3.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.37. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Insurance Australia Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IAUGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.37, fair value $3.41, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IAUGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.41). For Insurance Australia Group the two are $1.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Insurance Australia Group worth?
The market values Insurance Australia Group at about $12.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.37; our models calculate a fair value of $3.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IAUGF?
Our models span a range for Insurance Australia Group: cautious scenario $2.56, base $3.41, optimistic $4.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IAUGF?
Insurance Australia Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Insurance Australia Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Insurance Australia Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Insurance Australia Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.37, calculated fair value $3.41 (−37%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IAUGF calculated?
We run Insurance Australia Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Insurance Australia Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $5.37. Our model-based fair value is $3.41, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Insurance Australia Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Insurance Australia Group grew +0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin −19.2 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +24.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Insurance Australia Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The market capitalisation of Insurance Australia Group is $12.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Insurance Australia Group is 1.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Earnings per share at Insurance Australia Group are $0.3200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The dividend yield of Insurance Australia Group is 5.8% (payout 96.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The net margin of Insurance Australia Group is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Insurance Australia Group is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Insurance Australia Group is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
The operating margin of Insurance Australia Group is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Revenue at Insurance Australia Group is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF)?
Earnings per share at Insurance Australia Group are growing −32.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Insurance Australia Group (IAUGF) carry?
The net debt of Insurance Australia Group is A$2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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