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ING Groep N.V (INN1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ING Groep N.V €19.47, price €30.69, upside -36.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · DE · ISIN NL0011821202

IG Broad data Sep 29, 2026

ING Groep N.V

INN1 · XETRA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €19.47 · Strongly overvalued (−36.6%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +1.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
✓Wide moat 70/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€32.28 €6.06 Fair Value €19.47 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.06 – €32.28 · fair‑value band €16.61 – €24.91 · the €30.69 price screens above the €19.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

ING Groep N.V. provides various banking products and services in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium, Retail Germany, Retail Other, and Wholesale Banking. It accepts current and savings accounts; and time deposits.

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ING Groep N.V. provides various banking products and services in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Retail Netherlands, Retail Belgium, Retail Germany, Retail Other, and Wholesale Banking. It accepts current and savings accounts; and time deposits. The company also offers business lending products; SME loans; consumer lending products, such as residential mortgage loans and other consumer lending loans; and mortgages. In addition, it provides working capital solutions; debt and equity market solutions; various loans; payments; and cash management, trade and corporate finance, and treasury services, as well as savings, investment, insurance, and digital banking services. The company serves individual customers, corporate clients, and financial institutions. ING Groep N.V. was founded in 1762 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Stock analysis

ING Groep N.V (INN1) currently trades at €30.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.47, 36.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €24.34 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €30.69 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €11.65, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €16.61 (bear) to €24.91 (bull), the price of €30.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

ING Groep N.V reported revenue of €23.0B in FY2025 versus €25.8B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was €6.3B in FY2025, compounding +7.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €90.2B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 3.85 · EPS (TTM) €2.19 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −37%, INN1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €16.61 Fair Value €19.47 Bull €24.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.66 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €16.50 €19.25 €24.46 74
Gordon GGM €12.48 €15.05 €17.85 67
DDM Multi-Stage €12.48 €16.58 €21.72 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €12.48 €15.05 €17.85 67
DDM Multi-Stage €12.48 €16.58 €21.72 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple €21.58 €28.78 €35.97 63
P/B Multiple €18.25 €24.34 €30.42 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €8.69 €11.65 €17.39 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €16.50 €19.25 €24.46 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.9% vs 7.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 40%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

INN1 screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −18.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 34.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 41.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.41× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.82× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 23.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.12× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $330.83 $188.11 −43%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.28 ¥10.93 +32%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.98 ¥13.69 +25%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $55.47 $42.37 −24%
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥6.97 ¥12.94 +86%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.62 ¥9.86 +49%
Royal Bank of Canada RY $200.95 $130.85 −35%
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $23.37 $14.86 −36%
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $80.05 $66.44 −17%
Citigroup Inc C $130.80 $107.10 −18%

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ING Groep N.V · Fair Value
€19.47 −37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ING Groep N.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INN1

Frequently asked questions

Is ING Groep N.V (INN1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.47 versus a price of €30.69, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INN1?
Our model-based fair value for ING Groep N.V is €19.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.69.
What is the quality score of INN1?
ING Groep N.V has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €19.47 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.61, optimistic scenario €24.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ING Groep N.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €19.47, about −37% upside versus a price of €30.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €16.61, optimistic scenario €24.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
ING Groep N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €24.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does ING Groep N.V pay a dividend?
ING Groep N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ING Groep N.V it is €19.47 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €30.69. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ING Groep N.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, INN1 trades above its calculated fair value: price €30.69, fair value €19.47, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INN1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€19.47). For ING Groep N.V the two are €11.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ING Groep N.V worth?
The market values ING Groep N.V at about €90.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €30.69; our models calculate a fair value of €19.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INN1?
Our models span a range for ING Groep N.V: cautious scenario €16.61, base €19.47, optimistic €24.91 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €30.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INN1?
ING Groep N.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €19.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.9, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of INN1?
The PEG ratio of ING Groep N.V is 2.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Balance-sheet figures for ING Groep N.V (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 16.6%, debt of 3.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INN1 from its 52-week high?
ING Groep N.V trades at €30.69, about 5% below its 52-week high of €32.28 and 55% above the low of €19.78 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €19.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ING Groep N.V?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ING Groep N.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €30.69, calculated fair value €19.47 (−37%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INN1 calculated?
We run ING Groep N.V through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €19.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ING Groep N.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €30.69. Our model-based fair value is €19.47, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ING Groep N.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€24.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ING Groep N.V (INN1) come from?
Earnings per share at ING Groep N.V grew +10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of ING Groep N.V

How large is the market capitalisation of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The market capitalisation of ING Groep N.V is €90.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ING Groep N.V is 3.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Earnings per share at ING Groep N.V are €2.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The dividend yield of ING Groep N.V is 5.1% (payout 71.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The net margin of ING Groep N.V is 27.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ING Groep N.V is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ING Groep N.V is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
The operating margin of ING Groep N.V is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Revenue at ING Groep N.V is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ING Groep N.V (INN1)?
Earnings per share at ING Groep N.V are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ING Groep N.V (INN1) generate?
The free cash flow of ING Groep N.V is −€191M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ING Groep N.V (INN1) carry?
The net debt of ING Groep N.V is €192B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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