Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Inspire Medical Systems Inc $85.51, price $69.06, upside +23.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.05 – $326.08 · fair‑value band $46.08 – $134.87 · the $69.06 price screens below the $85.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of minimally invasive solutions for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States and internationally.
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Inspire Medical Systems, Inc., a medical technology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of minimally invasive solutions for patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the United States and internationally. The company offers Inspire system, a neurostimulation technology that provides a safe and effective treatment for patients with moderate to severe OSA. It also develops a novel, closed-loop solution that continuously monitors a patient's breathing and delivers mild hypoglossal nerve stimulation to maintain an open airway. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) currently trades at $69.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.51, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $233.70 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $69.06 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.10, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $46.08 (bear) to $134.87 (bull), the price of $69.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Inspire Medical Systems Inc reported revenue of $912M in FY2025 versus $233M in FY2021, a compound +40.6%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.0B · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $4.42 · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 18.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% · Operating margin −0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 24%, INSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $46.08Fair Value $85.51Bull $134.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +60.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−48.7% (2020) → 5.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Inspire Medical Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+24% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Inspire Medical Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INSP
Frequently asked questions
Is Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $85.51 versus a price of $69.06, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of INSP?
Our model-based fair value for Inspire Medical Systems Inc is $85.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.06.
What is the quality score of INSP?
Inspire Medical Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $85.51 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $46.08, optimistic scenario $134.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Inspire Medical Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $85.51, about +24% upside versus a price of $69.06 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $46.08, optimistic scenario $134.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Inspire Medical Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $899M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Inspire Medical Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +51.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of INSP use?
Our models discount Inspire Medical Systems Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Inspire Medical Systems Inc that is +9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Inspire Medical Systems Inc grew +51.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Inspire Medical Systems Inc (+9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.93 %: that much free cash flow Inspire Medical Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Inspire Medical Systems Inc it is $85.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $69.06. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Inspire Medical Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, INSP trades below its calculated fair value: price $69.06, fair value $85.51, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INSP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($85.51). For Inspire Medical Systems Inc the two are $16.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Inspire Medical Systems Inc worth?
The market values Inspire Medical Systems Inc at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $69.06; our models calculate a fair value of $85.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INSP?
Our models span a range for Inspire Medical Systems Inc: cautious scenario $46.08, base $85.51, optimistic $134.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $69.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INSP?
Inspire Medical Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $85.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 26.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Inspire Medical Systems Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INSP from its 52-week high?
Inspire Medical Systems Inc trades at $69.06, about 52% below its 52-week high of $143.99 and 72% above the low of $40.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $85.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Inspire Medical Systems Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Medtronic plc, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Inspire Medical Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $69.06, calculated fair value $85.51 (+24%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INSP calculated?
We run Inspire Medical Systems Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $85.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Inspire Medical Systems Inc currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $69.06. Our model-based fair value is $85.51, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Inspire Medical Systems Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($46.08 to $134.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Inspire Medical Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The market capitalisation of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Earnings per share at Inspire Medical Systems Inc are $4.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The net margin of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is 15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
The operating margin of Inspire Medical Systems Inc is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Revenue at Inspire Medical Systems Inc is growing −7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP)?
Earnings per share at Inspire Medical Systems Inc are growing +308% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Inspire Medical Systems Inc (INSP) hold?
Inspire Medical Systems Inc holds more cash than debt, $72.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026