Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Japan Cash Machine Co stock €11.65, price €7.21, upside +61.6%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.56 – €8.69 · fair‑value band €9.48 – €14.57 · the €7.21 price screens below the €11.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Japan Cash Machine Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells of currency handling machines and equipment for amusement facilities in Japan and internationally. It operates through Global Gaming, Overseas Commercials, Domestic Commercials, and recreation hall equipment segments.
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It offers banknote recycler, banknote recycler with four denomination recycling, coin recycler, coin recycler with double sided insertion slot, modular banknote recycler, bill validator, recycler unit, bill validator with banknote storage box, plasma cluster Ion generating unit systems for spacious areas, cash/ cashless multi payment machine flexcom pay, and access control systems.
It serves retail, transportation, casinos/gaming, environment, clinic, and system products markets. Japan Cash Machine Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1955 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM) currently trades at €7.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.65, implying the stock looks roughly 38.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €17.00 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the €7.21 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.83, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.48 (bear) to €14.57 (bull), the price of €7.21 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Japan Cash Machine Co reported revenue of ¥31.6B in FY2026 versus ¥20.0B in FY2022, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.7B in FY2026, compounding +66.9%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €196M Micro · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) €0.9700 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 62%, JCM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€9.48Fair Value €11.65Bull€14.57
Price €7.21 · Upside +61.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4274 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+40.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.53.3% vs 16.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Business Equipment & Supplies · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+61.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Cash Machine Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JCM
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.65 versus a price of €7.21, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JCM?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Cash Machine Co is €11.65 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.21.
What is the quality score of JCM?
Japan Cash Machine Co has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.65 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.48, optimistic scenario €14.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Cash Machine Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.65, about +62% upside versus a price of €7.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.48, optimistic scenario €14.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Japan Cash Machine Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥34.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Japan Cash Machine Co pay a dividend?
Japan Cash Machine Co currently shows a dividend yield of 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Japan Cash Machine Co would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.1 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JCM use?
Our models discount Japan Cash Machine Co at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Japan Cash Machine Co that is -11.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Japan Cash Machine Co grew +13.1 % a year. The price currently implies -11.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Japan Cash Machine Co (-11.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.31 %: that much free cash flow Japan Cash Machine Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Cash Machine Co it is €11.65 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €7.21. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Cash Machine Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JCM trades below its calculated fair value: price €7.21, fair value €11.65, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.65). For Japan Cash Machine Co the two are €4.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Cash Machine Co worth?
The market values Japan Cash Machine Co at about €196M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €7.21; our models calculate a fair value of €11.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JCM?
Our models span a range for Japan Cash Machine Co: cautious scenario €9.48, base €11.65, optimistic €14.57 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €7.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JCM?
Japan Cash Machine Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Cash Machine Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JCM from its 52-week high?
Japan Cash Machine Co trades at €7.21, about 1% below its 52-week high of €7.25 and 55% above the low of €4.65 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Cash Machine Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GRG Banking Equipment Co, Crane NXT, Co, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc, XGD Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Cash Machine Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €7.21, calculated fair value €11.65 (+62%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JCM calculated?
We run Japan Cash Machine Co through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Cash Machine Co currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €7.21. Our model-based fair value is €11.65, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Cash Machine Co right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€9.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Japan Cash Machine Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Cash Machine Co is €196M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Cash Machine Co is 1.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Earnings per share at Japan Cash Machine Co are €0.9700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The dividend yield of Japan Cash Machine Co is 3.2% (payout 23.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The net margin of Japan Cash Machine Co is 14.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Cash Machine Co is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Cash Machine Co is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
The operating margin of Japan Cash Machine Co is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Revenue at Japan Cash Machine Co is growing +35.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Cash Machine Co (JCM)?
Earnings per share at Japan Cash Machine Co are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026