Crane NXT Co (CXT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Crane NXT Co $38.21, price $48.42, upside -21.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.78 – $68.14 · fair‑value band $23.38 – $59.81 · the $48.42 price screens above the $38.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Crane NXT, Co. operates as an industrial technology company that provides technology solutions to secure, detect, and authenticate customers' important assets. The company operates through Crane Payment Innovations; and Security and Authentication Technologies segments.
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Crane NXT, Co. operates as an industrial technology company that provides technology solutions to secure, detect, and authenticate customers' important assets. The company operates through Crane Payment Innovations; and Security and Authentication Technologies segments. The Crane Payment Innovations segment offers electronic equipment and associated software, as well as advanced automation solutions, processing systems, field service solutions, remote diagnostics, and productivity software solutions. The Security and Authentication Technologies segment provides advanced security solutions based on proprietary technology for securing physical products, including banknotes, consumer goods, and industrial products. This segment also offers brand protection, authentication solutions, and digital content protection across online marketplaces, social media platforms, and websites; and serves various brands, as well as government agencies and financial institutions. Crane NXT, Co. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Crane NXT Co (CXT) currently trades at $48.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.21, implying the stock looks roughly 26.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $42.87 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $48.42 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.49, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.38 (bear) to $59.81 (bull), the price of $48.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Crane NXT Co reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.8B · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) $2.23 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −21%, CXT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.38Fair Value $38.21Bull $59.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.1%/yr over ~8Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 826 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−21% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.23× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Crane NXT Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CXT
Frequently asked questions
Is Crane NXT Co (CXT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.21 versus a price of $48.42, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CXT?
Our model-based fair value for Crane NXT Co is $38.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.42.
What is the quality score of CXT?
Crane NXT Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.38, optimistic scenario $59.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crane NXT Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.21, about −21% upside versus a price of $48.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.38, optimistic scenario $59.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Crane NXT Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Crane NXT Co pay a dividend?
Crane NXT Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Crane NXT Co would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CXT use?
Our models discount Crane NXT Co at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Crane NXT Co that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Crane NXT Co (CXT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Crane NXT Co grew -10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Crane NXT Co (CXT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Crane NXT Co (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.06 %: that much free cash flow Crane NXT Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crane NXT Co it is $38.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $48.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crane NXT Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CXT trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.42, fair value $38.21, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CXT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.21). For Crane NXT Co the two are $10.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crane NXT Co worth?
The market values Crane NXT Co at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $48.42; our models calculate a fair value of $38.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CXT?
Our models span a range for Crane NXT Co: cautious scenario $23.38, base $38.21, optimistic $59.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $48.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CXT?
Crane NXT Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crane NXT Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CXT from its 52-week high?
Crane NXT Co trades at $48.42, about 29% below its 52-week high of $68.14 and 34% above the low of $36.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crane NXT Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crane NXT Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $48.42, calculated fair value $38.21 (−21%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CXT calculated?
We run Crane NXT Co through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Crane NXT Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $48.42. Our model-based fair value is $38.21, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crane NXT Co right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($23.38 to $59.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Crane NXT Co (CXT) come from?
Earnings per share at Crane NXT Co grew +0.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.5 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Crane NXT Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The market capitalisation of Crane NXT Co is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crane NXT Co is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Earnings per share at Crane NXT Co are $2.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The dividend yield of Crane NXT Co is 1.4% (payout 30.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The net margin of Crane NXT Co is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crane NXT Co is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crane NXT Co is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
The operating margin of Crane NXT Co is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Revenue at Crane NXT Co is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crane NXT Co (CXT)?
Earnings per share at Crane NXT Co are growing −71.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Crane NXT Co (CXT) carry?
The net debt of Crane NXT Co is $906M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026