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Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co (603187) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 4.8B CNY

QH Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co 603187 · SHG
Price¥12.15
Fair Value¥21.12
Upside+73.8%
Quality63/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.44% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range ¥15.84 – ¥26.40 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price +1.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 74% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥15.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥33.74 ¥9.11 Fair Value ¥21.12 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.11 – ¥33.74 · fair‑value band ¥15.84 – ¥26.40 · the ¥12.15 price screens below the ¥21.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co (603187) currently trades at ¥12.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.12, implying the stock looks roughly 73.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co generated revenue of 3.3B CNY at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue declined 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥15.84 (bear case) to ¥26.40 (bull case); at ¥12.15, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -57% fair-value upside, at 74%, 603187 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥15.53 ¥28.10 ¥47.38 80
Residual Income ¥9.46 ¥10.27 ¥12.75 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥14.54 ¥24.65 ¥38.92 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥15.95 ¥26.30 ¥52.00 38
Owner Earnings ¥9.49 ¥16.35 ¥29.22 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥14.54 ¥25.10 ¥40.22 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.45 ¥29.39 ¥46.65 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥17.25 ¥31.18 ¥48.28 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥14.50 ¥24.95 ¥42.67 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.18 ¥28.17 ¥48.43 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥16.72 ¥29.52 ¥49.88 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥6.84 ¥41.18 ¥57.40 54
Lynch FV ¥11.75 ¥16.78 ¥21.82 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥11.75 ¥16.78 ¥21.82 46
EPV ¥12.14 ¥13.62 ¥14.90 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥4.34 ¥8.64 ¥13.09 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.34 ¥7.47 ¥9.12 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥15.84 ¥21.12 ¥26.40 63
P/S Multiple ¥12.82 ¥17.09 ¥21.37 58
P/B Multiple ¥12.82 ¥17.09 ¥21.37 55
EV/EBIT ¥18.19 ¥23.33 ¥28.47 53
EV/EBITDA ¥17.39 ¥22.27 ¥27.14 54
EV/Revenue ¥13.70 ¥18.38 ¥23.07 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.59 ¥7.49 ¥11.18 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥15.53 ¥28.10 ¥47.38 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥14.54 ¥24.65 ¥38.92 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥9.46 ¥10.27 ¥12.75 76
ROIC Compounder ¥12.82 ¥17.04 ¥20.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥17.05 ¥24.36 ¥31.66 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥26.30) versus Dividend Discount (¥7.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.0%
Net margin 11.9%
Return on equity 9.0%
Free cash flow 371M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 12.3
More key figures
Operating margin 16.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.02
Dividend yield 4.4%
Net cash 1.0B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of commercial cold chain equipment in China.

Full company description

Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of commercial cold chain equipment in China. The company's products include commercial freezing display cabinets, commercial refrigerating display cabinets, supermarket display cabinets, commercial intelligent display cabinets, and other cold chain equipment, as well as optional accessories. It also provides customized solutions and professional services for customers to store products at low temperature. In addition, the company supplies products for cold drinks, cold food, beer, beverage, dairy, supermarket chain, convenience store, and other industries. Further, it exports to North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia and Australia. Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006 and is based in Qingdao, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co reported revenue of ¥3.4B in FY2025 versus ¥2.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥389M in FY2025, compounding +14.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.4B CNY
Latest YoY
+18.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.1%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+19.2%
Revenue +5.9%/yr
FY21 ¥2.7B
FY22 ¥2.9B
FY23 ¥3.2B
FY24 ¥2.8B
FY25 ¥3.4B
Net income +14.6%/yr
FY21 ¥225M
FY22 ¥292M
FY23 ¥413M
FY24 ¥354M
FY25 ¥389M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603187

Peer Group

Business Equipment & Supplies · 73 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +74% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.09× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.48× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 36 · sector 20
HEALTH 96 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 89 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Ricoh Company RICO ¥15.33 ¥17.99 +17%
GRG Banking Equipment Co 002152 ¥10.08 ¥6.90 -32%
Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc 603899 ¥21.45 ¥30.05 +40%
XGD Inc 300130 ¥19.90 ¥15.67 -21%
DOMS Industries Limited DOMS ₹2,260 ₹782.96 -65%
Hengbao Co 002104 ¥9.20 ¥1.66 -82%
Shaanxi Fenghuo Electronics Co 000561 ¥6.99 ¥1.75 -75%
Shenzhen Comix Group 002301 ¥7.30 ¥3.11 -57%
Shandong New Beiyang Information Technology Co 002376 ¥6.00 ¥1.73 -71%
Cashway Fintech Co 603106 ¥9.04 ¥1.20 -87%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co (603187) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥21.12 versus a price of ¥12.15, about +74% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603187?
Our model-based fair value for Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co is ¥21.12 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥12.15.
What is the quality score of 603187?
Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co (603187)?
Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603187?
The net profit margin of Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co is about 11.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co pay a dividend?
Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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