Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd $13.12, price $18.32, upside -28.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.60 – $18.32 · fair‑value band $9.84 – $16.40 · the $18.32 price screens above the $13.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. provides postal, banking, and insurance services in Japan. It operates through the Postal and Logistics Business, Post Office Counter Business, International Logistics Business, and Real Estate Business segments.
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Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. provides postal, banking, and insurance services in Japan. It operates through the Postal and Logistics Business, Post Office Counter Business, International Logistics Business, and Real Estate Business segments. The company engages in the postal, banking counter, and insurance counter operations; sale of documentary stamps; operations consigned by local government entities; and provision of other bank, and life and non-life insurance agency services. It also provides domestic distribution and delivery services; and merchandise sale services, as well as international cargo transport and agency services for air cargo business. In addition, undertakes logistics services, such as parcel and mail delivery; handles ordinary savings, fixed-amount savings, time deposits, remittance and settlement services, and public pensions; and payments, over-the-counter sales of government bonds, and investment trusts. Further, it is involved in the catalogue sales business through internet and direct mail; sales and issuance of bus tickets; issuance of official certificates; sale of lottery tickets, and conclusion and modification of broadcasting reception contracts; operation of a hospital and a recreational center; development and leasing of office buildings, commercial facilities, and residential properties, as well as the management of rental buildings; and fund management. Additionally, it provides annuity, cancer, medical, automobile, and personal accident insurance; life support services; ATM partnership services; asset management and lending services; foreign exchange services; regional transportation, warehousing management, resources, and government logistics services; freight and forwarding transportation, and truck transportation; credit card and mortgage brokerage services. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR (JPPHY) currently trades at $18.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.12, implying the stock looks roughly 39.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 13 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $9.84 (bear) to $16.40 (bull), the price of $18.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥11.9T in FY2026 versus ¥11.3T in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥397B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $53.1B · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.8000 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −28%, JPPHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.84Fair Value $13.12Bull $16.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 9%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (17 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.86× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.74× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPPHY
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.12 versus a price of $18.32, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JPPHY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $13.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.32.
What is the quality score of JPPHY?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.12 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.84, optimistic scenario $16.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.12, about −28% upside versus a price of $18.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.84, optimistic scenario $16.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR it is $13.12 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.32. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JPPHY trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.32, fair value $13.12, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JPPHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.12). For Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR the two are $5.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR at about $53.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.32; our models calculate a fair value of $13.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPPHY?
Our models span a range for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $9.84, base $13.12, optimistic $16.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JPPHY?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JPPHY from its 52-week high?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR trades at $18.32, at its 52-week high of $18.32 and 111% above the low of $8.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.32, calculated fair value $13.12 (−28%), Quality Score 47/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JPPHY calculated?
We run Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $18.32. Our model-based fair value is $13.12, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR grew +0.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $53.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR are $0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The dividend yield of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 2.4% (payout 55.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The net margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 3.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
The operating margin of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Revenue at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR are growing +17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR is −¥6.9T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (JPPHY) hold?
Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥39.9T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 24, 2026