Japan Post Holdings (JPPHY) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $38.9B

Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.60 – $16.75 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $14.03 · the $15.14 price screens above the $11.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Japan Post Holdings (JPPHY) currently trades at $15.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.22, implying the stock looks roughly 25.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Japan Post Holdings generated revenue of $11.4T at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue declined 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $39.9T. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $8.42 (bear case) to $14.03 (bull case); at $15.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -26%, JPPHY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($2,575) versus Multiples ($1,840). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (63).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. provides postal, banking, and insurance services in Japan. It operates through the Postal and Logistics Business, Post Office Counter Business, International Logistics Business, and Real Estate Business segments.

Full company description

Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. provides postal, banking, and insurance services in Japan. It operates through the Postal and Logistics Business, Post Office Counter Business, International Logistics Business, and Real Estate Business segments. The company engages in the postal, banking counter, and insurance counter operations; sale of documentary stamps; operations consigned by local government entities; and provision of other bank, and life and non-life insurance agency services. It also provides domestic distribution and delivery services; and merchandise sale services, as well as international cargo transport and agency services for air cargo business. In addition, undertakes logistics services, such as parcel and mail delivery; handles ordinary savings, fixed-amount savings, time deposits, remittance and settlement services, and public pensions; and payments, over-the-counter sales of government bonds, and investment trusts. Further, it is involved in the catalogue sales business through internet and direct mail; sales and issuance of bus tickets; issuance of official certificates; sale of lottery tickets, and conclusion and modification of broadcasting reception contracts; operation of a hospital and a recreational center; development and leasing of office buildings, commercial facilities, and residential properties, as well as the management of rental buildings; and fund management. Additionally, it provides annuity, cancer, medical, automobile, and personal accident insurance; life support services; ATM partnership services; asset management and lending services; foreign exchange services; regional transportation, warehousing management, resources, and government logistics services; freight and forwarding transportation, and truck transportation; credit card and mortgage brokerage services. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Japan Post Holdings reported revenue of $11.9T in FY2026 versus $11.3T in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $397B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.

JPPHY screens 26% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.