As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of JSM $45.77, price $16.72, upside +173.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
JSM (JSM) currently trades at $16.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.77, implying the stock looks roughly 63.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $31.89 (bear) to $93.72 (bull), the price of $16.72 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Other sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
JSM reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$80.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B · P/E ratio 13.9 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Free cash flow $441M · Net debt $3.0B.
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Other peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at 174%, JSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $31.89Fair Value $45.77Bull $93.72
Price $16.72 · Upside +173.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
57.9% (2019) → 73.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other · 124 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/2 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Growth and dividend
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JSM Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JSM
Frequently asked questions
Is JSM overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.77 versus a price of $16.72, about +174% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JSM?
Our model-based fair value for JSM is $45.77 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.72.
What is the quality score of JSM?
JSM has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JSM?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.77 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.89, optimistic scenario $93.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JSM stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.77, about +174% upside versus a price of $16.72 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $31.89, optimistic scenario $93.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does JSM pay a dividend?
JSM currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.83% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into JSM?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JSM would have to grow free cash flow by +49.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JSM use?
Our models discount JSM at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JSM that is +49.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JSM delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at JSM grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +49.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JSM growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JSM (+49.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JSM?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.76 %: that much free cash flow JSM produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JSM?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JSM it is $45.77 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $16.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JSM stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, JSM trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.72, fair value $45.77, a gap of about +174% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.77). For JSM the two are $29.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JSM worth?
The market values JSM at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $16.72; our models calculate a fair value of $45.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JSM?
Our models span a range for JSM: cautious scenario $31.89, base $45.77, optimistic $93.72 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $16.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JSM?
JSM trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.77 is built from several models across several years.
Which stocks are comparable to JSM?
From the same area (Other) we also value 542772, NEWTI, 532468, 590024, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JSM stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $16.72, calculated fair value $45.77 (+174%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JSM calculated?
We run JSM through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. JSM currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JSM?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.72. Our model-based fair value is $45.77, about +174% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JSM right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($31.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($31.89 to $93.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of JSM come from?
Earnings per share at JSM grew −5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin +15.3 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −25.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of JSM
How large is the market capitalisation of JSM?
The market capitalisation of JSM is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of JSM?
The dividend yield of JSM is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of JSM?
The net margin of JSM is −2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JSM?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JSM is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does JSM carry?
The net debt of JSM is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 4, 2026