Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Kagome Co., Ltd. $21.66, price $26.50, upside -18.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.62 – $26.50 · fair‑value band $15.59 – $27.07 · the $26.50 price screens above the $21.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kagome Co., Ltd. is involved in the manufacturing, purchasing, and sale of vegetable drinks and food products in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Domestic Processed Food Business, International Business, and Others.
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Kagome Co., Ltd. is involved in the manufacturing, purchasing, and sale of vegetable drinks and food products in Japan and internationally. It operates through three segments: Domestic Processed Food Business, International Business, and Others. The Domestic Processed Food Business segment manufactures and sells beverages, preserved food, seasonings, and other products. The International Business segment engages in seed, seedling, and farming product development, processing, and sale activities. The Others segment offers tomato paste, diced tomatoes, carrot juice, frozen Mediterranean vegetables, pizza sauce, barbecue sauce, and tomato ketchup. In addition, the company develops and sells health support services. Further, the company serves processed food manufacturers, food service providers, retail outlets, DtoC, and home meal replacement vendors. Additionally, it sells its products through local distributors and cross-border e-commerce channels. Kagome Co., Ltd. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) currently trades at $26.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.66, implying the stock looks roughly 22.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.09 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $26.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.03, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.59 (bear) to $27.07 (bull), the price of $26.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kagome Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥294B in FY2025 versus ¥190B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.8B in FY2025, compounding +11.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.4B · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $1.49 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −18%, KGMEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.59Fair Value $21.66Bull $27.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−18% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.66 versus a price of $26.50, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGMEF?
Our model-based fair value for Kagome Co., Ltd. is $21.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.50.
What is the quality score of KGMEF?
Kagome Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.59, optimistic scenario $27.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kagome Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.66, about −18% upside versus a price of $26.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.59, optimistic scenario $27.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Kagome Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥295B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kagome Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Kagome Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kagome Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGMEF use?
Our models discount Kagome Co., Ltd. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kagome Co., Ltd. that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kagome Co., Ltd. grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kagome Co., Ltd. (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.05 %: that much free cash flow Kagome Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kagome Co., Ltd. it is $21.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $26.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kagome Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KGMEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $26.50, fair value $21.66, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGMEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.66). For Kagome Co., Ltd. the two are $4.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kagome Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Kagome Co., Ltd. at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $26.50; our models calculate a fair value of $21.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGMEF?
Our models span a range for Kagome Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $15.59, base $21.66, optimistic $27.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $26.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGMEF?
Kagome Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 17.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kagome Co., Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGMEF from its 52-week high?
Kagome Co., Ltd. trades at $26.50, at its 52-week high of $26.50 and 1% above the low of $26.19 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kagome Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kagome Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $26.50, calculated fair value $21.66 (−18%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGMEF calculated?
We run Kagome Co., Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kagome Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $26.50. Our model-based fair value is $21.66, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kagome Co., Ltd. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kagome Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The market capitalisation of Kagome Co., Ltd. is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Earnings per share at Kagome Co., Ltd. are $1.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The dividend yield of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 1.1% (payout 19.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The net margin of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
The operating margin of Kagome Co., Ltd. is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Revenue at Kagome Co., Ltd. is growing +0.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF)?
Earnings per share at Kagome Co., Ltd. are growing −24.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kagome Co., Ltd. (KGMEF) carry?
The net debt of Kagome Co., Ltd. is ¥55.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026