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Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Lincoln National Corporation BRL 255, price BRL 220, upside +15.9%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN US5341871094

LN Some data Sep 24, 2026

Lincoln National Corporation

L1NC34 · SA

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value R$255.03 · Undervalued (+15.9%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −5.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

R$343.43 R$82.24 Fair Value R$255.03 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$82.24 – R$343.43 · fair‑value band R$236.30 – R$288.50 · the R$220.00 price screens below the R$255.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services.

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Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities. The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34) currently trades at R$220.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$255.03, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$417.00 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$220.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$108.75, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$236.30 (bear) to R$288.50 (bull), the price of R$220.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Lincoln National Corporation reported revenue of $18.6B in FY2025 versus $22.1B in FY2022, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$41.8B (≈ $8.0B) · P/E ratio 4.6 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) R$47.37 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 16%, L1NC34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$236.30 Fair Value R$255.03 Bull R$288.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$34.46 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$266.29 R$295.64 R$351.65 73
Gordon GGM R$99.78 R$108.75 R$122.30 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$99.78 R$123.30 R$155.40 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$99.78 R$108.75 R$122.30 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$99.78 R$123.30 R$155.40 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$313.42 R$417.89 R$522.36 63
P/B Multiple R$312.75 R$417.00 R$521.25 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$148.93 R$199.56 R$297.86 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$266.29 R$295.64 R$351.65 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 8%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥37.43 ¥49.98 +34%
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥53.29 ¥67.19 +26%
AIA Group 1299 HK$73.75 HK$41.69 −43%
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC $42.59 $27.37 −36%
MetLife, Inc MET $94.35 $54.39 −42%
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$93.34 C$42.07 −55%
Aflac Incorporated AFL $111.18 $67.02 −40%
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹409.05 ₹299.19 −27%
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 110.50 TWD 71.47 TWD −35%
China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 ¥30.88 ¥48.28 +56%

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Lincoln National Corporation · Fair Value
R$255.03 +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lincoln National Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/L1NC34

Frequently asked questions

Is Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$255.03 versus a price of R$220.00, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of L1NC34?
Our model-based fair value for Lincoln National Corporation is R$255.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$220.00.
What is the quality score of L1NC34?
Lincoln National Corporation has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$255.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$236.30, optimistic scenario R$288.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lincoln National Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$255.03, about +16% upside versus a price of R$220.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$236.30, optimistic scenario R$288.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Lincoln National Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lincoln National Corporation pay a dividend?
Lincoln National Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lincoln National Corporation it is R$255.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$220.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lincoln National Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, L1NC34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$220.00, fair value R$255.03, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of L1NC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$220.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$255.03). For Lincoln National Corporation the two are R$35.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lincoln National Corporation worth?
The market values Lincoln National Corporation at about R$41.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$220.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$255.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about L1NC34?
Our models span a range for Lincoln National Corporation: cautious scenario R$236.30, base R$255.03, optimistic R$288.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$220.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is L1NC34 from its 52-week high?
Lincoln National Corporation trades at R$220.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of R$247.83 and 30% above the low of R$168.64 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$255.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lincoln National Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lincoln National Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$220.00, calculated fair value R$255.03 (+16%), Quality Score 32/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of L1NC34 calculated?
We run Lincoln National Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$255.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lincoln National Corporation currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$220.00. Our model-based fair value is R$255.03, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lincoln National Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$236.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Lincoln National Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corporation is R$41.8B (≈ $8.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Lincoln National Corporation is 4.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lincoln National Corporation is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corporation are R$47.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The dividend yield of Lincoln National Corporation is 0.8% (payout 3.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The net margin of Lincoln National Corporation is 6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lincoln National Corporation is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lincoln National Corporation is 0.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
The operating margin of Lincoln National Corporation is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Revenue at Lincoln National Corporation is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corporation are growing −60.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34) generate?
The free cash flow of Lincoln National Corporation is −$167M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lincoln National Corporation (L1NC34) carry?
The net debt of Lincoln National Corporation is $554M (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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