Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lotus Bakeries stock €3,852, price €14,080, that is 72.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4,387 – €14,080 · fair‑value band €2,010 – €5,007 · the €14,080 price screens above the €3,852 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits.
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The company also provides energy bars, fruit and nut bars, protein bars, fruit and fibre bars, ice creams, and spreads. It sells its products under the Lotus, Biscoff, nakd, TREK, BEAR, Kiddylicious, Peter's Yard, Dinosaurus, Peijnenburg, Snelle Jelle, Annas, Suzy, and Kung Oscar brands.
The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Lembeke, Belgium. Lotus Bakeries NV is a subsidiary of Stichting Administratiekantoor van Aandelen Lotus Bakeries.
Stock analysis
Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) currently trades at €14,080, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3,852, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €3,852 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €14,080 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €402.86, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2,010 (bear) to €5,007 (bull), the price of €14,080 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lotus Bakeries reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €750M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was €172M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €11.5B Large · P/E ratio 60.0 · P/S ratio 7.92 · EPS (TTM) €234.81 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 23.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −73%, LOTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€402.86 to €6,323). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear€2,010Fair Value €3,852Bull€5,007
Price €14,080 · Downside -72.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€122.99 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.8% vs 14.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.5% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows potential for double-digit Biscoff growth through new factory capacity across continents, yet scant data on brand scale and modest gross margins limit evidence of a durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Retailers and manufacturers could release own-label caramelised biscuit products that replicate the flavour profile without the Biscoff name, eroding differentiation and pressuring prices or margins on the core brand.
Bull case: Strong brand heritage, global recognition and partnerships could help Lotus Bakeries defend its market position against copycats while adapting formulations to address health concerns and sustain volumes.
Bear case: Widespread private-label replication combined with stricter rules on indulgent snacks might commoditise the flavour profile and shrink the addressable market for Biscoff, limiting returns on the large capacity investments.
Lotus Bakeries is building its first US cookie factory in North Carolina and adding capacity in Belgium and Thailand as part of the largest Biscoff expansion program in its history. The moves target sustained double-digit growth for the brand across continents, yet they demand substantial ongoing investment that must deliver higher volumes without eroding cash generation. Will the new plants turn Biscoff demand into lasting operating leverage, or will the scale of spending limit returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−72.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)60.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.92× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow123.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA39.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG9.38× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)70· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)92· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lotus Bakeries Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LOTB
Frequently asked questions
Is Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3,852 versus a price of €14,080, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LOTB?
Our model-based fair value for Lotus Bakeries is €3,852 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €14,080.
What is the quality score of LOTB?
Lotus Bakeries has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3,852 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2,010, optimistic scenario €5,007. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lotus Bakeries stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3,852, about 73% lower versus a price of €14,080 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2,010, optimistic scenario €5,007. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Lotus Bakeries reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Lotus Bakeries pay a dividend?
Lotus Bakeries currently shows a dividend yield of 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lotus Bakeries would have to grow free cash flow by +42.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LOTB use?
Our models discount Lotus Bakeries at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Belgium. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lotus Bakeries that is +42.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lotus Bakeries grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies +42.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lotus Bakeries (+42.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.81 %: that much free cash flow Lotus Bakeries produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lotus Bakeries it is €3,852 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €14,080. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lotus Bakeries stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, LOTB trades above its calculated fair value: price €14,080, fair value €3,852, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€14,080); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3,852). For Lotus Bakeries the two are €10,228 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lotus Bakeries worth?
The market values Lotus Bakeries at about €11.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €14,080; our models calculate a fair value of €3,852 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOTB?
Our models span a range for Lotus Bakeries: cautious scenario €2,010, base €3,852, optimistic €5,007 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €14,080). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LOTB?
Lotus Bakeries trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3,852 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.1. Other multiples: PEG 9.4, P/B 13.3, P/S 7.9, EV/EBITDA 39.7.
What is the PEG ratio of LOTB?
The PEG ratio of Lotus Bakeries is 9.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lotus Bakeries (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 23.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOTB from its 52-week high?
Lotus Bakeries trades at €14,080, at its 52-week high of €14,080 and 95% above the low of €7,227 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3,852 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lotus Bakeries?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lotus Bakeries stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €14,080, calculated fair value €3,852 (−73%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOTB calculated?
We run Lotus Bakeries through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3,852, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Lotus Bakeries itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €14,080. Our model-based fair value is €3,852, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lotus Bakeries right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5,007). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2,010 to €5,007) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) come from?
Earnings per share at Lotus Bakeries grew +13.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lotus Bakeries
How large is the market capitalisation of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The market capitalisation of Lotus Bakeries is €11.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lotus Bakeries is 7.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Earnings per share at Lotus Bakeries are €234.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The dividend yield of Lotus Bakeries is 0.6% (payout 38.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The net margin of Lotus Bakeries is 13.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lotus Bakeries is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lotus Bakeries is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
The operating margin of Lotus Bakeries is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Revenue at Lotus Bakeries is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lotus Bakeries (LOTB)?
Earnings per share at Lotus Bakeries are growing +23.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lotus Bakeries (LOTB) carry?
The net debt of Lotus Bakeries is €190M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026