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Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · BE · Market cap €9.0B

LB Lotus Bakeries NV LOTB · BR
Price€11,440
Fair Value€3,735
Upside-67.4%
Quality66/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.81% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range €1,943 – €5,216 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from €3,948 to €3,735 (−5.4%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5,216). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (€1,943 to €5,216). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€12,431 €4,387 Fair Value €3,735 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4,387 – €12,431 · fair‑value band €1,943 – €5,216 · the €11,440 price screens above the €3,735 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB) currently trades at €11,440, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3,735, implying the stock looks roughly 67.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Lotus Bakeries NV generated revenue of €1.4B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.9%. Net debt stands at €190M. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €1,943 (bear case) to €5,216 (bull case); at €11,440, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -67%, LOTB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €1,221 €2,134 €3,578 80
Residual Income €1,330 €1,741 €6,187 76
Rev-Margin DCF €2,009 €3,763 €5,983 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €1,229 €2,222 €3,849 38
Owner Earnings €1,326 €2,390 €4,131 31
5Y Revenue Exit €2,009 €3,826 €6,306 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €2,301 €4,418 €7,071 41
5Y P/E Exit €2,246 €4,306 €6,649 38
10Y Revenue Exit €1,634 €3,238 €5,707 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €1,906 €3,658 €6,323 37
10Y P/E Exit €1,870 €3,579 €5,984 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1,441 €6,324 €8,655 54
Lynch FV €1,633 €2,333 €3,033 50
PEG = 1.0 €1,633 €2,333 €3,033 46
EPV €1,867 €2,184 €2,457 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €667.04 €1,329 €2,013 70
DDM Multi-Stage €667.04 €1,149 €1,403 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €3,179 €4,238 €5,298 63
P/S Multiple €2,702 €3,603 €4,503 58
P/B Multiple €2,379 €3,173 €3,966 55
EV/EBIT €3,720 €5,006 €6,293 53
EV/EBITDA €3,130 €4,220 €5,309 54
EV/Revenue €2,462 €3,577 €4,692 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €528.77 €708.55 €1,058 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €1,221 €2,134 €3,578 80
Rev-Margin DCF €2,009 €3,763 €5,983 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1,330 €1,741 €6,187 76
ROIC Compounder €2,100 €2,823 €3,750 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €2,624 €3,749 €4,873 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€3,749) versus Asset-Based (€708.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €1.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.3%
Net margin 12.7%
Return on equity 20.9%
Free cash flow €92.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 52.3
More key figures
Operating margin 17.6%
EPS (TTM) €212.04
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +15.4%
Net debt €190M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits.

Full company description

Lotus Bakeries NV, together with its subsidiaries, provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally. It offers biscuits, cookies, ginger breads, cakes, donut, waffles, pastry, fruity bakes, veggie straws, wriggles, tiddlers, biscptti, melty bittons, and pepparkakor biscuits. The company also provides energy bars, fruit and nut bars, protein bars, fruit and fibre bars, ice creams, and spreads. It sells its products under the Lotus, Biscoff, nakd, TREK, BEAR, Kiddylicious, Peter's Yard, Dinosaurus, Peijnenburg, Snelle Jelle, Annas, Suzy, and Kung Oscar brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Lembeke, Belgium. Lotus Bakeries NV is a subsidiary of Stichting Administratiekantoor van Aandelen Lotus Bakeries.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lotus Bakeries NV reported revenue of €1.4B in FY2025 versus €750M in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was €172M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€1.4B
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.4%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+9.8%
Revenue +15.9%/yr
FY21 €750M
FY22 €877M
FY23 €1.1B
FY24 €1.2B
FY25 €1.4B
Net income +17.4%/yr
FY21 €90.8M
FY22 €103M
FY23 €129M
FY24 €153M
FY25 €172M

LOTB screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lotus Bakeries NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LOTB

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 649 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −67% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 52.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 12.08× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.66× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 111.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 39.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 9.38× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 30
FUTURE 52 · sector 20
PAST 83 · sector 28
HEALTH 86 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,427 ₹362.37 -75%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,413 ₹1,870 -65%
Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM ₹1,089 ₹327.27 -70%
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 6,650 IDR 15,757 IDR +137%
Samyang Foods Co 003230 1,139,000 KRW 1,010,543 KRW -11%
Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI ₹413.80 ₹157.04 -62%
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM 58,500 VND 68,259 VND +17%
PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR 1,750 IDR 2,699 IDR +54%
PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY 4,490 IDR 4,355 IDR -3%
Nongshim Co 004370 348,500 KRW 530,619 KRW +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3,735 versus a price of €11,440, about −67% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LOTB?
Our model-based fair value for Lotus Bakeries NV is €3,735 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €11,440.
What is the quality score of LOTB?
Lotus Bakeries NV has a Quality Score of 66/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lotus Bakeries NV (LOTB)?
Lotus Bakeries NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LOTB?
The net profit margin of Lotus Bakeries NV is about 12.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Lotus Bakeries NV pay a dividend?
Lotus Bakeries NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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