Lisata Therapeutics, Inc (LSTA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $32.1M
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc
LSTA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $3.98 to $3.18 (−20.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −67.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 200% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (25/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.53 to $5.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9900 – $25.05 · fair‑value band $1.53 – $5.02 · the $1.06 price screens below the $3.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc (LSTA) currently trades at $1.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.18, implying the stock looks roughly 199.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $170K. Revenue declined 90.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -91.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $16.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.53 (bear case) to $5.02 (bull case); at $1.06, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at 200%, LSTA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($5.49) versus Asset-Based ($0.3300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of solid tumors and other diseases.
Full company description
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of solid tumors and other diseases. Its investigational product is certepetide, which is in Phase 2 clinical studies for the treatment of solid tumors, such as metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, appendiceal cancer, and colon cancer and glioblastoma multiforme in combination with range of anti-cancer regimens. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Basking Ridge, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lisata Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $170K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$16.6M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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