Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lupatech S.A stock BRL 10.25, price BRL 4.20, upside +144.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.29 – R$81.80 · fair‑value band R$10.25 – R$13.55 · the R$4.20 price screens below the R$10.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Follow Lupatech in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lupatech is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Lupatech S.A. provides equipment for the oil and gas sector in Brazil.
Show moreShow less
The company produces industrial valves; valves for oil and gas; synthetic fiber ropes for anchoring oil platforms and various other applications; and composite material artifacts, such as poles and tubular sleeves for coating oil pipelines. It also exports its products.
Lupatech S.A. was formerly known as Valmicro Indústria e Comércio de Válvulas S.A. and changed its name to Lupatech S.A. in March 1993. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) currently trades at R$4.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$10.25, implying the stock looks roughly 59.0% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$10.25 per share, and 4 of the 5 models we run sit above the R$4.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$4.76, and 1 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$10.25 (bear) to R$13.55 (bull), the price of R$4.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2023: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2023.
Lupatech S.A reported revenue of R$52.1M in FY2025 versus R$93.6M in FY2021, a compound −13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −R$60.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$19.9M (≈ $3.9M) · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) R$−199.30 · Net margin −116% · Return on equity −390% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9% · Operating margin −68.2% · Revenue (TTM) R$36.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 226% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 144%, LUPA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$10.25Fair Value R$10.25BullR$13.55
Price R$4.20 · Upside +144.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2023: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2023.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−90.1% (2020) → −67.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+144.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−12.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−115.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−68.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.05× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lupatech S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUPA3
Frequently asked questions
Is Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$10.25 versus a price of R$4.20, about +144% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUPA3?
Our model-based fair value for Lupatech S.A is R$10.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$4.20.
What is the quality score of LUPA3?
Lupatech S.A has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$10.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$10.25, optimistic scenario R$13.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lupatech S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$10.25, about +144% upside versus a price of R$4.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$10.25, optimistic scenario R$13.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Lupatech S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$36.5M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lupatech S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +25.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUPA3 use?
Our models discount Lupatech S.A at 13.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lupatech S.A that is +25.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lupatech S.A grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +25.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lupatech S.A (+25.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.25 %: that much free cash flow Lupatech S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lupatech S.A it is R$10.25 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$4.20. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lupatech S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, LUPA3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$4.20, fair value R$10.25, a gap of about +144% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUPA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$4.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$10.25). For Lupatech S.A the two are R$6.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lupatech S.A worth?
The market values Lupatech S.A at about R$19.9M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$4.20; our models calculate a fair value of R$10.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUPA3?
Our models span a range for Lupatech S.A: cautious scenario R$10.25, base R$10.25, optimistic R$13.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$4.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LUPA3?
The PEG ratio of Lupatech S.A is 0.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lupatech S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −390.3%, debt of 1.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUPA3 from its 52-week high?
Lupatech S.A trades at R$4.20, about 70% below its 52-week high of R$14.10 and 226% above the low of R$1.29 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$10.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lupatech S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Tenaris S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lupatech S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$4.20, calculated fair value R$10.25 (+144%), Quality Score 36/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUPA3 calculated?
We run Lupatech S.A through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$10.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Lupatech S.A currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was R$4.20. Our model-based fair value is R$10.25, about +144% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lupatech S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$10.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Lupatech S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The market capitalisation of Lupatech S.A is R$19.9M (≈ $3.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lupatech S.A is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Earnings per share at Lupatech S.A are R$−199.30. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The net margin of Lupatech S.A is −116% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lupatech S.A is −390% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lupatech S.A is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
The operating margin of Lupatech S.A is −68.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Revenue at Lupatech S.A is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lupatech S.A (LUPA3)?
Earnings per share at Lupatech S.A are growing −90.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lupatech S.A (LUPA3) carry?
The net debt of Lupatech S.A is R$178M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Lupatech S.A in the live analysis
One click puts Lupatech S.A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 3, 2026